What are the consequences of the calamitous Afghanistan pullout for Biden?

At first sight, and despite the international condemnation, President Biden’s decision to pull out of Afghanistan even before the poignant 11 September deadline should have been electorally popular. For some years America’s seemingly indefinite involvement in conflicts around the world, especially Afghanistan and Iraq, has met with increasing disillusion among the US public, with consistent majorities in favour of getting out. Those politicians, including Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who openly advocated disengagement and bringing the troops home were the ones who won elections. The trend has been increasingly isolationist and anti-globalist. It was one reason why Trump enjoyed fanatical support in some quarters. With midterm elections coming up next year, and a feeble grip on Congress, it seems sensible for Joe Biden to align himself with this America First attitude, and shift away from America being the world’s cop. Now that the pullout from Afghanistan has actually happened, however, the scenes of chaos and talk of humiliation and retreat have rebounded badly on the president. It seems Americans wanted a withdrawal, but not the withdrawal that actually happened.

The popularity of the war in Afghanistan has been in more or less continual decline since it began. After the traumas of 9/11 around 90 per cent of the public backed President George W Bush’s policy of military action, which happened to be sanctioned by the United Nations and Nato. No matter that he had only recently been elected on a platform that stressed domestic priorities such as education and the economy, after Bill Clinton’s human rights driven interventions in the Balkans, America had to defend itself, and hit back. The cause was just, the methods seem right, and the support was overwhelming.

But it was not to last. The additional financial and military commitment to Iraq dragged on, and the twin wars felt like overreach, and fatigue set in. Even the assassination of Osama bin Laden in 2010 failed to boost support (and to some it felt like the original remit had finally been met). By the time Trump signed his treaty with the Taliban and Biden announced the withdrawal date, the conflict was overwhelmingly unpopular and ending it was a democratic imperative. About 70 per cent of Americans wanted it over (though that would depend on the way the question was posed – mention of terror would push sentiment towards continuing with bases in the region). Democrats and – more importantly – swing voters tended to be keener on exiting Afghanistan than Republicans, but all showed majority support for withdrawal. Hence Biden’s determination to see it through.

But it has not looked orderly, it has not been on the president’s stated timetable, and it has felt like a defeat and a betrayal, at least to some, and alienated America’s allies. This has meant that any positive political advantage from repatriating the last Americans from this supposed quagmire and welcoming them back on the symbolic date of 9/11/2021, as if “mission accomplished”, has been obliterated by news footage of desperate Afghans clinging to rescue aircraft. Americans do not generally thank leaders who make their country look weak.

And so it has come to pass. A majority of Americans – 69 per cent – disapprove of the president’s handling of military operations, against 23 per cent approving of them. Only 40 per cent of Democrats back Biden on this, with 48 per cent rejecting his policy, at least according to a new poll by Trafalgar Group. In due course, and by the November 2022 elections, the voters might be more willing to give Biden the credit for “ending the war” (though the height of the fighting was years ago), but for now he seems to have alienated both the most liberal supporters in his party and many moderate-minded sections of the electorate. There is not much the president can do about it now, however, which may explain why he is being so defiant in his public remarks, and doubling down in the hope that people might all the same see him as a strong leader. It may be in vain.