The Tories underestimate Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party at their peril

Hell hath no fury like a Farage scorned. The Brexit Party leader has been curiously quiet for a few days, but there has been much of what he dismissed as “idle speculation” about his intentions in the general election.

Early hints that the Brexit Party would confine itself to attacking Leave-inclined Labour seats in the northeast and the midlands now seem to be wide of the mark. Instead, Nigel Farage is prepared to stand a Brexit Party candidate in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland.

At his campaign launch yesterday, Farage said that exceptions would be made for Tory candidates who renounce the prime minister’s Brexit deal. Farage has given Johnson a deadline of the middle of November – the close of nominations – to respond to his offer of a “Leave alliance” and abandon the withdrawal agreement he has renegotiated with the EU.

This ultimatum leaves Johnson in something if a quandary. A wave of Brexit Party candidates could well deprive the Conservatives of some of their target seats. A relatively small shift of ex-Conservative Brexiteers to Farage could mean the return of a Labour MP. On the other hand, there are many disillusioned Labour voters who would find it easier to vote for the Brexit Party than for the Conservatives for cultural, tribal reasons. This has always been Farage’s argument in pursuing his “non-aggression pact” with the Tories: that, like Ukip before them, the Brexit Party can reach parts of the electorate that the Conservatives cannot reach.

The effect of these political cross-currents is impossible to predict. Never before have we had such an election where a new politics of “culture wars” overlays the more usual class loyalties.

The one thing that is apparent is that the prospective revival – if it becomes real – of the Faragists means that Johnson will be deprived of an overall majority in the Commons. Farage is a proven and spirited campaigner, and only a matter of months ago scored an impressive win in the European elections. He may even have another try at entering the House of Commons.

Yet the ground Farage finds himself fighting on is increasingly narrow. His poll ratings have stayed, for him, disappointingly soft. The Conservatives are pirating a classic squeeze on the Brexit vote, and Johnson has at least come back with some sort of deal, and one that is a hard Brexit which takes the UK out of the customs union and single market.

The no-deal, or “clean Brexit”, option favoured by Farage is not as appealing now as it was before Johnson’s deal was struck. Yet Farage still has the potential to infuriate the Tories, and he can be relied upon to make the most of the opportunities a national campaign will offer. There seems little chance that Johnson will cave, so the threat posed by Farage should not be written off.