Voters won’t forgive the next prime minister if they ignore the idea of ‘levelling up’

Becoming a mid-term prime minister is always a bit awkward. Gordon Brown struggled to step out from Tony Blair’s shadow in 2007, and then had his shot at building an agenda scuppered by the financial crisis. Theresa May spoke of “burning injustices” on the steps of Number 10 but ultimately couldn’t escape David Cameron’s Brexit legacy

The next PM’s transition will be particularly tough. They step into Downing Street against a backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising energy bills, rolling train strikes, widespread droughts and NHS backlogs. Oh, and war in Ukraine. All just two years before a general election.

It would be easy to spend the next 12 months just reacting to these challenges. It would also be a mistake. The electorate will want a positive, forward-looking vision to guide the country out of choppy waters.

In 2019 that agenda was “levelling up” – and it was enormously popular. Parts of the country that had never supported the Conservatives wanted their areas to have more investment, opportunity and pride. The promise to level up delivered Boris Johnson his “thumping” parliamentary majority. And recent Onward polling shows that it is still the most popular of Johnson’s domestic policy priorities – even garnering more support among Conservative voters than getting Brexit done.

So the big question for the next prime minister is – will they stick with levelling up? To date, both candidates have said many of the right things in hustings and debates. They’re also at 1-1 when it comes to backing from Conservative mayors – with Ben Houchen in Teesside supporting Rishi Sunak and Andy Street in the West Midlands supporting Liz Truss.

Despite these warm words, there are genuine worries about their commitment to levelling up.

Sunak’s emphasis on fiscal discipline – both during this campaign and as chancellor – has limited his ambition to invest in parts of the country that have been left behind. Balancing the books is important, but serious spending on skills and infrastructure in the Midlands and the north are needed to boost growth medium term.

Truss’s “investment zones” and “full-fat freeports” will go some way to boosting private sector activity in struggling towns and cities. But if they’re not coupled with ambitious plans to fix weak foundations around health, education, and welfare, then inward investors will take their funds elsewhere.

Both candidates also need to focus much more on the importance of community. The current debate often focuses on the national, tracking the energy price cap or the latest worrying economic forecast from the Bank of England. Yet our resilience to these challenges comes locally, from the family members, neighbours, and civil society groups that proved their importance during the pandemic. Security and belonging, notably absent from the leadership debate so far, are a central part of the levelling up pitch.

Winning a party leadership election is not the same as having the top job, and both candidates will undoubtedly set out their plans more fully if they reach Number 10. But in their efforts to win the hearts and minds of Tory members – 0.03 per cent of the country – they must not forget that 14 million people at the last election told them to level up. Their tricky transition will be even harder if they don’t.

Adam Hawksbee is Deputy Director and Head of Levelling Up at the Onward think tank