The Trump bump lives on: Lessons from Ohio’s GOP primary

JD Vance has proven that the “Trump bump” still matters to the Republican base.

The Hillbilly Elegy author is now the GOP’s newest nominee for the US Senate as he faces Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan for the seat held by retiring Senator Rob Portman this fall. And Mr Vance owes it all to Donald Trump, the man whose endorsement saved his campaign (even if it meant flubbing Mr Vance’s name, dubbing him “JD Mandel”, at a rally in Nebraska).

The race is a gold mine for political analysts and commentators. Just two months ago Mr Vance was languishing closer to the back of the primary field, in fourth place as his campaign struggled to gain traction in the Buckeye State. A few short weeks later he was standing alongside the former president at a rally in Delaware, Ohio, shaking hands with the former star of The Apprentice and basking in the glow of the Trump bump as his poll numbers soared and he rocketed past other candidates – soon to include his top rival, Josh Mandel, who had heavily campaigned for the Maga-loyalist vote.

It’s a sign that above all, Donald Trump’s endorsement is the most powerful force in a Republican primary election, even after the 45th president has left office and returned to his Mar-a-Lago resort to hold court while he faces civil and criminal investigations from New York state and potentially the 6 January investigation.

There’s no guarantee that Mr Vance will win a general election even with Mr Trump’s nod; Ohio still has one Democratic senator and his opponent, Tim Ryan, released a poll on Tuesday that showed him slightly ahead of his Republican rival. But the victory by an author with no experience in politics or government over contenders like Mr Mandel, a former state treasurer and member of the state legislature, would be shocking were it not for the obvious explanation that Mr Trump can carry even an inexperienced candidate with a flagging campaign to the finish line in a Republican-only contest.

Mr Vance now faces a daunting test in November. He is squaring off against one of the state’s best-known Democratic House members whose profile has grown locally and nationally with his challenges to Nancy Pelosi (a major boon for him in increasingly conservative Ohio) and short-lived bid for president in 2020. Mr Ryan won his primary handily on Tuesday against Morgan Harper, a progressive whose only experience in government was an advisory role at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The race in Ohio is doubly important for Republicans: not only does it represent an opportunity for the party to pick up a seat from the Democrats, it gives them a very real opportunity to prevent allies of the White House from further cementing their 50-50 majority or protecting it from the effects of the loss of an incumbent’s race in another state.

His Republican rivals have all circled their wagons and endorsed him following the race’s conclusion on Tuesday evening, but the true test for Mr Vance remains: running a first-time general election campaign for a US Senate seat against a seasoned campaigner and politician with plenty of national exposure.

For that reason, it could be said that the truest victor of Tuesday’s primary election was not Mr Vance himself but rather the former president, who hundreds of miles away in Florida rests comfortably knowing that his hold over GOP electorates in some of the most politically important states in the union remains firm.