The Pfizer vaccine news is welcome but for the NHS, this battle is far from over

Stock markets surged on Monday off the back of an announcement from Pfizer that its coronavirus vaccine appears to be more than 90 per cent effective in preventing Covid-19 among volunteers in a clinical trial.

Headlines across the world heralded the news and may suggest the world is at a turning point in the fight against coronavirus which has ravaged economies and killed more than 1.2 million people.

The British government has ordered up to 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine amid optimism the medication could be the way out of the Covid dark ages.

But we are not there yet and there are significant reasons to hold off celebrating just yet.

First off, the second wave crisis engulfing hospitals in northern England is going to spread to the south. The national lockdown will help reduce the numbers of patients being admitted to hospital but only after the next two weeks. Until then numbers may continue rising, operations will be cancelled. The traditional winter crisis period for the health service is fast approaching.

NHS leaders are already getting ready for a planned vaccine. GPs have already done a deal on being able to play their part and the government is changing the rules to allow many more staff to deliver vaccine jabs. Hospitals are preparing for a mass vaccination drive. But we are nowhere near that yet.

The first thing to note about the Pfizer news was that this was a corporate press release by the pharmaceutical giant – it was not a published piece of peer-reviewed science and has not been fully evaluated by independent scientists or regulators.

The company’s press release is based on early results from a phase 3 clinical trial and even Pfizer said itself that as the study continues the final performance of the vaccine may vary. In total 38,955 people have received two doses of either the vaccine or a placebo by 8 November, and there have been 94 confirmed coronavirus cases among those participants.

The company will continue the study until 164 cases of the virus are confirmed among volunteers. It’s not even clear yet if the vaccine prevents infection or just reduces the severity of the illness.

There are many more hurdles to get through yet – the vaccine will need to be signed off by regulators both in the USA and here in the UK. That process will be radically shorter than normal but may still take months to complete – safety concerns will be paramount.

Even if approved the company will need to produce the vaccine in vast quantities. It has said 50 million doses could be produced by the end of the year – with around 10 million possibly made available to Britain – whether that comes to pass as every nation around the world will be after the vaccine remains to be seen.

If it works, is approved, and delivered to the UK for use there is still the logistical challenge of distributing and inoculating the right people to deliver the maximum effect. Those most at risk and key health workers will be first in line – quite rightly the rest of us will have to wait our turn, and that means maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, washing our hands and possibly enduring ongoing restrictions to normal life.

The Pfizer vaccine requires two doses and must be stored at between minus 70C and minus 80C – a temperature far below standard freezers and requiring specialist equipment. Organising the distribution and delivery of a vaccine like this will be a mammoth challenge as will ensuring people attend for their two jabs.

It could take months, if not most of the year to successfully vaccinate the UK population depending on how quickly sufficient supplies can be delivered to these shores.

This is before we consider the very real prospect that some sections of the public have no confidence in the vaccine, or indeed any vaccine. If enough people opt out the UK will struggle to achieve genuine herd immunity.

Even if the vaccine is safe, mass produced, and well distributed there is no telling yet if it will even give people permanent protection or how long before that immunity starts to fade. Even more serious is how effective the vaccine will be specifically among the elderly.

Older people can have a much poorer immune response to vaccines that can leave them susceptible to infection. This would be a disaster for any Covid vaccine.

These are all very real challenges to the successful delivery and roll out of the Pfizer vaccine. They apply to the other candidates too. The road to a successful vaccine is littered with failed attempts.

But there is no denying that the news from Pfizer is the first sign of real scientific progress in the battle against coronavirus. The world’s greatest minds and billions of pounds in funding are marshalled against the killer disease.

The chances are good that in the long run we will have a workable vaccine that will eventually be available to us all. But we aren’t there yet.

A lot can still go wrong and even if everything goes right this pandemic is far from over.