Will the DUP’s stance over the Northern Ireland protocol come back to bite them?

Boris Johnson has urged political parties in Northern Ireland to “roll up your sleeves and get stuck in” by returning to Stormont and restarting government. But the sleeves of Democrat Unionist Party (DUP) politicians remain firmed rolled down.

DUP leaders are refusing to budge, insisting that they won’t allow the formation of a power-sharing executive until the prime minister takes firm action to ditch the previously-agreed protocol checks they hate so very badly.

On Monday the unionist party blocked the election of a speaker for a second time since Sinn Fein triumphed at the recent election – dismissing the recall of the assembly as a “stunt” by the Irish nationalists.

The DUP has been accused of playing politics with the protocol in a desperate bid to shore up increasingly fragmented unionist support. But the DUP does not appear to be playing politics very well.

The Sinn Fein team appears to be enjoying their role as the grown-ups, casting the DUP as the unruly children.

“We will do this again, because I’m not giving up,” said Stormont leader Michelle O’Neill on Monday’s failed attempt to restart the executive. “The DUP are punishing the public. It is the public who are being held to ransom because of their actions.”

The latest RED C poll for the Business Post suggests that support for Sinn Fein has grown since they emerged as Northern Ireland’s largest party for the first time in a century.

The nationalist party – firmly opposed to Brexit and talking up the chances of a poll on Irish reunification – is up two points to 36 per cent among voters in the Republic of Ireland on the last comparable poll in late April.

Could the DUP’s dogged stance backfire and further boost Sinn Fein support north of the border? How long are they willing to dig their heels in?

Johnson’s government is expected to introduce legislation aimed at the unilateral override of protocol checks in the fortnight after parliament returns on 6 June.

The DUP might just decide that they like enough about the draft legislation to return to Stormont. But leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has previously suggested that a draft bill would in itself not be enough – emphasising “action” over “words”.

If Donaldson and his party insist on waiting until the bill becomes law, Northern Ireland could be without a government for up to 12 months. Peers are expected to fight No 10’s plan tooth and nail in the House of Lords.

It’s tempting to dismiss a state of political crisis in Northern Ireland as relatively normal. Stalemates can last a very long time. The executive, remember, collapsed in 2017 and stayed that way until 2020.

But the three-year impasse involved both the big parties and happened over a range of disputes, including the fall-out from a green energy scandal and Irish language legislation.

This time is different. It’s much easier for Sinn Fein and the other parties to point the finger at the DUP and its Brexit obsession as the reason Northern Ireland does not have a functioning government.

The Irish nationalists in the SDLP have accused the party of “holding the people of Northern Ireland hostage”.

The DUP’s attempts to portray the EU as the true “hostage” takers have not proved convincing, if the election results and poll numbers are anything to go by.

The party’s high-stakes stance could well prove hostage to fortune, if the perception of the DUP as trouble-makers rather than problem-solvers truly takes hold in the months ahead.