What does the latest polling tell us about Boris Johnson’s future?

With the parliamentary recess drawing to a close, we can expect more stories and briefings about what MPs think about the government and Boris Johnson’s position in it. But what do the public think?

It’s clear that Johnson’s personal ratings have taken a hit. Ipsos’s latest Political Monitor has net satisfaction with the prime minister at minus 46, a nearly 20-point drop from November 2021.

It’s worth noting too that Ipsos has been asking this question for a long time, and we can recall when Margaret Thatcher’s net satisfaction rating fell to minus 41 in December 1981. After which, she proceeded to win two general elections with majorities of more than 100 and remained as prime minister for another nine years.

That doesn’t mean that Johnson will be able to manage that. The problems that beset Thatcher’s first government were government problems, rather than additional questions about the character of the prime minister herself, which we see currently. But it does highlight that the precedents for levels of satisfaction with Johnson do not necessarily mean the exit door for a PM.

And while that may provide some comfort in Downing Street, the Labour Party of 2022 is not the Labour Party of 1981. Michael Foot was the leader then, and he was just as unpopular as Thatcher. In contrast, Keir Starmer has seen a steady uptick in his own satisfaction ratings over the last few months to minus 15, and he currently has an 18-point lead over Johnson in who the public think would be the most capable PM. This is not the rapturous support that Tony Blair had, but clearly demonstrates that the Labour Party of today is a far more credible opposition than the Labour Party led by Foot.

However, satisfaction with party leaders isn’t the be-all and end-all. We know that when people vote in general elections, they will be balancing their views on a range of factors: the party leader, how they feel about policy proposals, how positive they are about the direction of the country and the economy, and their historical party affiliations do still play a role. But add in a looming cost-of-living crisis, and economic optimism taking a turn downwards, falling again, Johnson and his team will know his back is to the wall when it comes to public opinion.

When we look back on this moment after the results of the next general election are clear, only then will we know if this was the nadir for Johnson from which he launched a Thatcher-like fightback. Or if this is the moment when the writing was on the wall and MPs should have been more ruthless in deposing him. There is no denying that the clock is ticking until the next election, when the British public will give their final verdict.

Kelly Beaver is chief executive of Ipsos