The reason why Netanyahu is ready to torpedo peace in the Middle East

The Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that he would annexe the Jordan Valley – a large swathe of the occupied West Bank – if he gets re-elected has prompted a mixture of outrage and concern from the international community and his rivals in Israel, who consider the plan to be no more than an election stunt.

Netanyahu, the head of the right-wing Likud party, is neck and neck in the polls with his centrist rivals ahead of the general election, which is due on Tuesday. The Jordan Valley is in effect under Israeli control according to the Oslo Accord, signed between the Palestinians and Israel in 1993 as a framework to draw a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Why is Netanyahu announcing this now?

Because of the upcoming election and, he says, President Donald Trump. The Israeli PM wants to appeal to right-leaning voters in an election in order to win. The Likud is facing fierce competition from the centrist Blue and White party, which is led by the former Israeli army chief Benny Gantz, who wants to present himself as a potential alternative to the long-serving leader. Blue and White’s co-leader, Yair Lapid, attacked Netanyahu, insisting he “doesn’t want to annex territories, he wants to annex votes”.

Netanyahu sees Trump as the blueprint – and the main supporter – of a historical chance to accomplish what is considered the endgame he wants in relation to the conflict. Netanyahu no longer seems cowed by international convention, buoyed by the strong support he has received from the White House in general.

Last March, just before Israel’s previous election which resulted in Netanyahu’s failure to form a government coalition, Trump – in a move widely seen as an attempt to bolster Netanyahu – recognised Israel’s 1981 annexation of the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 conflict. He recognised Israel’s annexation of East Jerusalem, too. The Israeli forces have occupied the Jordan Valley since the 1967 war. Neither move has been accepted by the international community for decades. Netanyahu expects that it is likely that Trump will recognise his latest moves after they are implemented if he is re-elected.

Winning this election is vital for the Israeli leader as he is in a race against time to avoid a possible criminal indictment after Israeli police recommended last year that Netanyahu should face corruption charges in three separate cases. Israel’s attorney general is expected to decide whether to formally charge him by the end of 2019 after a pre-trial hearing in October.

Netanyahu denies the allegations and would have immunity from prosecution for the length of any new term if the election returned a majority for him in the Knesset. Even if he is indicted he is likely to face few calls from allies to stand down and will be under no strict legal obligation to do so.

Why is the Jordan Valley so important to the Palestinians?

Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967 but has stopped short of annexation. Palestinians consider the whole of the area as the eastern borders for a future independent state. Netanyahu has previously insisted Israel would always retain a presence in the Jordan Valley for security purposes. With its small population (65,000 Palestinians and 11,000 Israeli settlers), the valley is considered by the Palestinian Authority to be a huge land asset for the future state.

But the valley, according to the Oslo Accord, is considered “Zone C”, which means it is under full Israeli occupation. This was a crucial point for Israel to make during the negotiations in the 1990s as all Israeli politicians, from the left to the right, insist upon a right to maintain a military presence there even after peace with the Palestinians. According to the Israeli human rights group B’Tselem, Palestinians are barred from entering about 85 per cent of the area.

Like the Golan Heights with Syria, the Jordan Valley is widely considered in Israel as a buffer zone with Jordan, just like the arrangement with Egypt to demilitarise another buffer zone in Sinai, on the Egyptian borders with Israel, according to the 1979 peace treaty between both sides.

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But the policy of living within buffer zones proved to be unreliable during Netanyahu’s speech at a campaign event in Ashdod, a southern city. On Tuesday, Netanyahu was rushed off stage by his guards because of rocket fire from Gaza. Israeli planes later targeted sites in the strip in a retaliatory response.

What is the reaction?

A UN spokesman said the proposed annexation would have “no international legal effect”, and the office of UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said the plan “would constitute a serious violation of international law”. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas said in a statement that “all signed agreements with Israel and the obligations resulting from them would end” if Netanyahu went through with the move.

“There is no change in the United States policy at this time,” a Trump administration official said, when asked whether the White House supported Netanyahu’s move. “We will release our Vision for Peace after the Israeli election and work to determine the best path forward to bring long-sought security, opportunity, and stability to the region.”

It is widely thought that Netanyahu’s move, if implemented, will destroy the Trump administration’s fragile peace plan. So far Trump’s adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner has failed to get both sides, along with major Arab states, to back his plan. Arab League foreign ministers have condemned Netanyahu’s plan, saying it would undermine any chance of progress towards Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Officials in Jordan also sharply criticised the announcement. Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu criticised Netanyahu for “giving all kind of illegal, unlawful and aggressive messages” before the election. Saudi Arabia also condemned the announcement on state media as a “very dangerous escalation” and called for an emergency meeting of the foreign ministers of the 57 member states of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.

In Europe, five nations issued a joint statement saying they were deeply concerned about Israel’s announcement of its intention to annex areas of the West Bank.

“This would, if implemented, constitute a serious breach of international law,” the statement said. “France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom will continue to call on all parties to refrain from actions in contravention of international law which would imperil the viability of a two-state solution, based on the 1967 lines, and make it harder to achieve a just and lasting peace,” the statement added.