How are the candidates faring in the Labour leadership contest?

In just over two weeks, Labour members will begin receiving ballot papers with a list of candidates vying to replace Jeremy Corbyn and take the party into the 2024 general election.

For those of you who haven’t been paying attention (you’re forgiven: according to pollsters Ipsos Mori few Britons claim to know much about the contenders), candidates wishing to succeed Corbyn must secure the nominations of either 33 constituency Labour party groups, or at least three affiliated organisations, including two trade unions, by Valentine’s Day.

So far, Sir Keir Starmer, Lisa Nandy, and Rebecca Long-Bailey have all passed this threshold. The only other candidate, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, is struggling to gain momentum behind her campaign despite her high profile in the party’s ranks.

The Islington South and Finsbury MP has not managed to receive an endorsement from any of the major trade unions affiliated to Labour and, so far, just nine local parties have backed her efforts. Thornberry now has 12 days to persuade 24 more local parties to support her.

The next stage kicks off on 21 February when Labour’s 580,000-strong membership, affiliated supporters, and registered supporters will begin to receive their ballot papers via email. The deadline for voting is 2 April – two days before the party announces its next leader at a special conference.

The poll is a one-member one-vote system, meaning every ballot is equal and uses a preferential method. If no candidate receives 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated and their votes redistributed. This process continues until one candidate secures more than 50 per cent of the vote.

According to two YouGov polls, Sir Keir is the frontrunner in the contest. When seven candidates were believed to be running at the beginning of January, the Holborn and St Pancras MP emerged as the most likely to win in a poll of Labour members. He increased his lead slightly two weeks later when the contest was narrowed down to five Labour MPs.

But the race is far from a foregone conclusion with two months remaining. The recent surge in party members could change the dynamics of the contest, but it is impossible at this stage to know for certain which candidates’ chances are bolstered by this influx.

Lisa Nandy has also emerged as the best media performer, handling veteran interviewers Andrew Neil and Piers Morgan, who most politicians would run a mile from, including the current occupant of No 10, with relative ease.

And Long-Bailey, the left’s favoured candidate and the one closest to Corbyn’s policy agenda, has the formidable campaigning power of Momentum at her disposal. Not to mention access to the organisation’s database of 40,000 signed-up Labour members. Her flagship policy of a Green New Deal to combat the climate emergency is also hugely popular with the membership.