Inside Politics: Johnson’s Pacific trade agreement ‘drop in the ocean’ as figures show ‘teeny’ benefit

It’s joy for England, heartbreak for Scotland. Outclassed by 2018 world cup finalists Croatia, Steve Clarke’s charges last night finished bottom of Group D winless on one point. On the fifth anniversary of the Brexit vote, has the UK scored an own goal on trade? Official figures show a Pacific partnership agreement touted by Boris Johnson as a game changer is anything but. Elsewhere, Keir Starmer has again reshuffled his top team ahead of next month’s must-win Batley and Spen by-election. But is the change in personnel all too little too late?

Inside the bubble

Political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for today:

After prime minister’s questions, ministers will answer urgent questions on their long-delayed social care reforms and on vaccinating military personnel serving overseas. Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, will trail proposals, including the sale of Channel 4, to be included in a broadcasting white paper this autumn. On the select committee corridor, Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, will be quizzed about the catch-up programme in schools, while Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland secretary, will be questioned about the NI protocol.

What to watch out for

-Professor Neil Ferguson and SPI-B member Stephen Reicher on BBC Radio 4 Today at 8.10am

-Media minister John Whittingdale on talkRADIO at 9.30am

Daily Briefing

A DROP IN THE OCEAN: Some less than positive Brexit news to bring you this morning. Happy anniversary. A Pacific trade agreement hailed by Boris Johnson as key to prosperity outside the EU would increase GDP by just 0.08 per cent, according to official figures — less than one-fortieth of the expected economic hit from leaving the bloc. The Liberal Democrats said the deal was “shocking”, describing it as a “drop in the ocean”. Ouch. The Department for Trade insisted the UK would accrue greater benefit over time as more countries joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). In other Brexit news, the Home Office is receiving more than 10,000 new EU settlement applications per day with just over a week to go before the scheme’s deadline, sparking concern that many will be left without status.

AID CUTS: The controversial decision to scrap a dedicated government department has had a negative effect on overseas aid spending, an official watchdog found. Bringing the issue within the Foreign Office slowed down moves to boost the impact of billions of pounds worth of investment and assure value for money for the taxpayer, a report published today warns. There was widespread outcry when Boris Johnson’s government announced plans to scrap the Department for International Development last June. Experts warned the move would hit the world’s poorest just as they were facing the challenge of fighting the coronavirus pandemic.

LAST THROW OF THE DICE? It’s do or die for Keir Starmer next month at the Batley and Spen by-election, and the Labour leader has made another change to his top team ahead of the poll. Jenny Chapman’s move to become Brexit spokesperson shadowing Lord Frost in the House of Lords completes a clear-out of senior staff in the leader’s office. Chapman has been under increasing pressure since Labour’s defeat at the Hartlepool by-election, and the move comes in the wake of the party’s dismal showing at the Chesham and Amersham ballot, where it secured just over 600 votes. But is it all too late? A recent poll showed Labour is on course to lose the contest, in which case it could be curtains for Keir. If Labour does lose Batley and Spen, Starmer will again be accused of not making changes quickly enough.

SAUSAGE WARS: Brexit bruiser Lord Frost has had another pop at the EU, telling the bloc it should stop making threats to “big” third countries like the UK. “If I had one criticism, perhaps it is that sometimes it feels like they resort to threats is a bit quick – and, you know, we don’t make threats in quite the same way as I think some players in the EU do, and I think if we could just sort of dial that down a bit it would help,” he told a Commons committee. Don’t rule out that sausage war just yet. Elsewhere, the EU is likely to shut off the flow of vital security and business data and “slow down” exports through Calais if there is a Brexit trade war, an expert has warned Boris Johnson.

TV SHAKE UP: The future of Channel 4 is widely reported this morning. The government is to launch a consultation into the privatisation of the broadcaster as part of a shake-up of British television, ministers have confirmed, in a bid to ensure its “future success and sustainability”. “Technology has transformed broadcasting but the rules protecting viewers and helping our traditional channels compete are from an analogue age,” culture secretary Oliver Dowden said in a statement. It came after the channel’s annual report showed it delivered a record financial surplus of £74m at the end of 2020, as well as significant digital growth. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it?

CAN’T SEE IT: Talk of a second referendum on Scottish independence intensified following the SNP’s strong showing at the Holyrood elections. But Cabinet minister Michael Gove says he “can’t see it” anytime soon. Specifically, he told the Daily Telegraph that Boris Johnson won’t allow a vote before the next general election. “It seems to me to be at best reckless, at worst folly, to try to move the conversation on to constitutional division when people expect us to be working together in order to deal with these challenges,” he said. Nicola Sturgeon is, however, likely to take a different view. And any refusal by Downing Street to sanction a poll could end up acting as a recruiting sergeant for the first minister’s cause.

SIR JEFFREY CROWNED: The crisis-hit DUP has its third leader in just two months after Sir Jeffrey Donaldson was crowned without a contest. Seen as a moderate within the party, Sir Jeffrey replaces Edwin Poots, who was forced out after agreeing to a Sinn Fein demand on Irish language laws in order to restore the power-sharing executive at Stormont. In ideological terms the leadership of Sir Jeffrey, who will need to give up his seat as an MP and become an MLA to take up the first minister role, is being viewed as a slight departure from that of his predecessor; a moderniser who can broaden the church, so to speak. But the major obstacle before him remains the same: opposition to the Northern Ireland protocol.

On the record

“We have to be sure that the benefits are worth the risks, and if those benefits could be as low as a 0.017 per cent increase in GDP, then that is alarmingly small compared to the price we are paying to join.”

Labour’s shadow trade secretary Emily Thornberry on CPTPP

From the Twitterati

“Well, here’s a thing. I’m told John Bercow just tuned into a meeting of the Battersea Labour Party on Zoom. Clearly using his new party membership to the full. He should be at home though: the CLP is *very* pro-Jeremy Corbyn.”

Huffpost’s Paul Waugh is told John Bercow is making the most of his new Labour Party membership

“I secretly met with a current front bench Tory MP and they simply insisted that I tell you that John Bercow spent £1,885 voting to keep David James on Strictly.

ITV’s Robert Peston

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