Climate crisis a focal issue as Iceland goes to the polls

Climate change is a burning issue for voters in Iceland as they head to the polls in an election that looks set to cause major upheaval for the North Atlantic island.

The election campaign, which follows an exceptionally warm summer, has seen intense debate on global warming, but healthcare and EU membership will also at the forefront of voters’ minds on Saturday.

The coalition government spans the political spectrum from left to centre-right and is led by Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir of the Left-Green Movement, which shares power with the Independence Party and the Progressive Party.

It was formed in 2017 after years of political instability. Jakobsdottir remains a popular prime minister, but polls suggest her party could falter and cripple the coalition this weekend.

Pollsters say the number of undecided voters has never been higher this close to election day. And the number of parties likely to share the Althing’s 63 seats has also never been higher — the nine parties could all get in.

A Gallup poll conducted for Iceland’s national public-service broadcaster RUV from13-19 September showed that the ruling coalition would only win 30 of the 63 seats in Iceland’s Parliament.

The results also show that a three-party coalition may be exceedingly difficult to form.

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According to the poll, the Independence Party still enjoys the highest level of support, with 21.2% of respondents saying they would vote for them if elections were held today. The Left-Greens came in at 10.2%, and the Progressives got 13.2%.

Amongst opposition parties, the Social Democrats make the strongest showing, at 12.7%. Followed close behind is the Pirate Party, at 11.5%; the Reform Party at 10.2%; the People’s Party at 7% and the Centre Party at 6.2%.

The election is notable for its lean to the left. A striking example of this is the rapid ascent of the Socialist Party, which was formed in 2017 and does not have a seat in Parliament, having 7.3% of respondents saying they would vote for them.

Polls show strong support for left-leaning parties largely campaigning on a promise to cut carbon emissions by more than what Iceland is committed to under the Paris Climate Agreement. Under their pledges, Iceland would reach carbon neutrality by 2040, a decade ahead of most other European nations.

All nine parties running for seats at the North Atlantic island nation’s Parliament, or Althing, acknowledge global warming as a force of change in a sub-Arctic landscape.

But politicians disagree on whether Iceland should take more urgent action to help curb climate change, or capitalise on it as an opportunity for economic growth — as the melting of glaciers and warmer weather offer immediate gains for Iceland’s key industries, such as renewable energy.

Coronavirus has forced the healthcare system into the public consciousness.

Iceland was praised internationally for its robust and fast response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, but it also revealed long-term problems within Iceland’s hospitals and clinics, such as staff shortages, long waiting lists for crucial care, and low wages for healthcare professionals.

A recent poll by the daily newspaper Frettabladid showed that more than 72% of respondents ranked the healthcare system as their priority.

Iceland’s next government could also decide if the country begins talks to join the European Union. A previous attempt in 2009 was scuppered in 2015 by then Minister of Foreign Affairs Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson.

Opinion polling on whether or not Iceland should join the EU is largely 50/50. The Social Democrats and the Reform Party are very much in favour of accession, while others, such as the Pirate Party, want a national referendum on the matter. The Independence Party and the Progressive Party remain fiercely opposed to Iceland joining the bloc.

Why is the climate crisis so important to Iceland’s voters?

Iceland has continued to see extreme weather by local standards. This summer, from June to August, the nation clocked 59 days of temperatures above 20C.

The capital Reykjavik saw forest fires on its outskirts and mudslides have grown in recent years due to heavy rainfall.

Rising temperatures have left a dramatically changed landscape in Iceland. The island’s glacial cover has decreased by 300 square miles over the past 20 years – roughly the size of New York City, according to a report by the Icelandic Met Office earlier this year.

This has been a boon for Iceland’s hydroelectric dams powered by glacial rivers. Glacial melting is expected to oversaturate watersheds in the next decades and increase the capacity of hydro-dams.

Landsvirkjun, the state-owned national energy company, has reported about 8 per cent capacity growth due to increased glacial melting, expected to peak around 2050.

Politicians disagree on whether to use the country’s energy abundance for economic growth or green solutions in the future.

Climate activist Tinna Hallgrimsdottir said the short-term benefits of climate change had "no meaning for an unsustainable future".

She leads The Icelandic Youth Environmentalist Association, which undertook a "climate audit" of the campaigning parties and ranked them based on effectiveness.

"Fancy promises are not enough," she said. "We had to see a real plan for action."

Minister of Environment Gudmundur Gudbrandsson told Associated Press on Tuesday that Iceland could lead the way in "bold and ambitious" climate policies precisely due to its size.

"Small is good for change," he said, highlighting how Iceland is making the shift to electric vehicles faster than any other country except Norway.

Iceland has an outsized energy supply for its tiny population of just 360,000 people, due to massive hydroelectric power plants built to power aluminium smelters and other energy-intensive industries.

Of the nine running parties, three have pledged to stop the building of new energy plants that would expand energy-intensive industries, including cryptocurrency “mines” rapidly plugging into the grid for the past years.