Labour still hasn’t learnt the lessons of the last election – and it could cost them dearly

The good news for Jeremy Corbyn is that his picture is now featuring on general election leaflets. The bad news is that they promote Conservative candidates, not Labour ones.

It is rare for leaders of both main parties to be unpopular. But many voters will have to decide next Thursday who they least dislike.

Although Boris Johnson is well ahead when voters are asked to name the best prime minister, he is not riding a wave of popular support, as MPs who rushed to back him for the Tory leadership hoped. He said then his “true selling point” was his ability to win elections.

Johnson’s role in the 2016 referendum probably doomed him to be a Marmite figure disliked by half the country, who could never return to the popular “just Boris” who twice won a mayoral election in Labour-dominated London.

So next week will be a “hold your nose” election. It won’t just see anti-Tory tactical voting by Remainers, even if they don’t like Corbyn. The Tories are handing out nosepegs too, urging voters with doubts about Johnson and his party to lend him their vote to “get Brexit done”.

In this ugly baby competition, Johnson can take some comfort from Corbyn’s ratings being much worse than his. According to Ipsos MORI, Johnson’s net satisfaction index (the difference between those satisfied and dissatisfied with him) is minus 20 points, down from plus two points last month. But Corbyn’s stands at minus 44 points. His ratings have nosedived since 2017; at this stage of the campaign, his figure was minus 11 points, compared to Theresa May’s minus 7 points.

Corbyn allies still have remarkable faith in his ability to turn this election round. But several Labour figures have told me Corbyn is “a problem” on the doorstep and has failed to create the momentum he achieved in 2017. As one candidate put it: “It feels different. The combination of Corbyn and Brexit is very difficult for us.”

I suspect the crucial underlying factor this time is that the Tories have learnt the right lessons from the 2017 contest, while Labour has drawn the wrong conclusions.

Theresa May fell between two stools. Her pitch was “strong and stable” but her bold manifesto took risks on issues like social care, and offered instability; she then wobbled and looked weak. She didn’t really explain why she wanted a Brexit election and was diverted on to Labour’s home ground of austerity. She didn’t want to run a presidential campaign, yet the Tories’ effort was built on her. She gambled on winning Labour Leavers in the north and midlands, but was not strong enough to seal the deal.

Johnson, while portraying his government as “new” in the hope voters forget his party has been in power for nine years, offered a safety-first manifesto. So he can do “strong and stable”. He offers an excuse for the election – that parliament has blocked Brexit. It’s feeble since the bill implementing his deal was approved in principle by MPs with a majority of 30. But it has cut through, as has his “get Brexit done” slogan, the most duplicitous one I can recall in covering 12 general elections. (Brexit won’t be “done” on 31 January; a trade deal with the EU will probably take another three years). Johnson is frustrated the election is not all about Brexit and will try to keep the focus on it in the campaign’s closing stages. But he has insured himself against Labour’s attack by promising to spend more on the NHS, police and schools.

Johnson is a much better communicator than May, and his broad shoulders are strong enough to carry a presidential campaign in which most of his cabinet has been invisible.

Although May remained in power, Labour “won” the 2017 campaign after reducing the Tories’ lead from 20 to two points. So this time, Labour doubled down with an even more radical, expensive manifesto, without any reassurance strategy for floating voters. Two years ago, Labour’s programme was fully costed, while the Tories’ was not. It’s the other way round this time. In a remarkable afterthought, Labour added a £58bn pledge on pensions for the “Waspi women”.

After the 2017 election, Labour wished it had targeted more Tory seats it had judged unwinnable. This time, it overreached, and then belatedly defended its north and midlands strongholds. It’s a clear sign Johnson has made inroads there and, ominously for Labour, he is more popular than his party. (In contrast, Corbyn is less popular than his). One in 10 people who backed Labour in 2017 say they will vote Tory this time.

Although Labour has narrowed the Tories’ opinion poll lead from 14 to 10 points, strategists in both main parties ask themselves the same question: is Labour’s fightback piling up more votes in seats it will win anyway, or will it prop up its “red wall” of constituencies from north Wales to the northeast? The answer will decide the result next Thursday.