There are plenty of political fireworks to come in the US

The political reaction to the congressional committee’s recommendation that Donald Trump should face criminal charges relating to the 2021 Capital Riots could have been seen a mile off – Democrats praising the committee's work, Republicans and Trump allies declaring it a “witch hunt”.

My colleagues in our US team have done a stellar job at laying out what the decision will mean for Trump and what comes next, so I wanted to look at the two major parties as a whole as we move towards the next presidential election in 2024. The big question is how the Republican selection process for a candidate plays out. Trump has declared his bid, although his campaign hasn't gotten off to a good start – and if he wins, then the American public will be offered essentially a binary choice in 2024: do they trust Trump to be at the head of the federal government once again?

For the current White House incumbent Joe Biden, believed to be laying the groundwork for a re-election bid but not yet making clear his intentions, his concerns will be a little less stark. For him to do well at the ballot box much will depend on how the economy is doing as well as whether he can lift his approval ratings (even after a better-than-expected performance by the Democrats in last month's midterms). The Democrats at large may have to take the high road as they cede control of the House of Representatives to the Republicans in January, striving for bipartisanship may prove advantageous in a political landscape beset by division.

Democrat officials will be banking on the fact that the slim majority the Republicans will have in the House will end up doing them more harm than good.

The GOP have already set a confrontational stance towards Biden, promising House investigations around several of Biden's decisions and policies. Those may end up doing damage to the Biden brand and rally Republican supporters, but the GOP also avoid following into the trap of letting petty political battles overshadow the day-to-day needs of Americans. The party leadership cannot afford to let the more hardline members on the fringes of the party make enough noise to dictate the direction of travel.

Whatever happens, there are sure to be plenty more political fireworks.

Yours,

Chris Stevenson

Premium editor