As Biden and Sanders falter, remaining Democratic candidates should seize the independent vote now

As the impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump rumbles on, Democrats have been putting their game faces on for the 2020 election. Whereas many voters and strategists have previously been happy to talk about the benefits of a broad church when it comes to presidential candidates, now the tide is turning. Electability is back on the agenda – and people across the spectrum are having to accept that their favoured candidate might not be the one who makes the most sense.

On 2 October, Bernie Sanders suffered a medical emergency which everyone knew – but his team refused to confirm – was a heart attack. It was only two days later that they finally admitted he had indeed suffered one, and the response has been predictable. Many diehard Sanders supporters are now cautiously backing away. I’ve spoken to a few in the last few days who have told me that they’re still fully committed to the left-wing liberal ideas Bernie stands for, but they don’t think he’s the best one to deliver them in 2020.

Increasingly, people are turning to Elizabeth Warren for that instead. She is visibly in better health and quicker and slicker in her live debate responses. Her legendary four-hour selfie lines, if anything, are testament to her stamina.

Many right-leaning Democrats are also abandoning their preferred moderate candidate, Joe Biden. He has been harmed by the Ukraine scandal; Trump and his team have prioritised deflecting accusations of corruption onto him, and they’re starting to take hold. Uncle Joe’s son, Hunter Biden, did nothing legally wrong by sitting on the board of a Ukrainian gas company, but his promotion to that post – with the huge salary attached – does look horribly nepotistic. Trump got in with a promise about “draining the swamp”, and Joe Biden has come out of this looking like a swamp monster. He’s exactly the kind of DC-insider politician America has recently fallen out of love with, and Democrats are now worrying his candidacy would mean Hillary Clinton all over again.

Unless Biden or Sanders rally, we may well see both bases defect to Warren, an ex-Republican with economic nous who can tempt Biden voters, and a public advocate of socialist policies straight from the playbook of Sanders. There’s still over a year in it, however, and it’s fair to say that this is an election where anything could happen.

The people who turned out for Trump in droves in 2016 weren’t just Republicans; they were independents. Common in “decider” states like Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s worth noting that recent polls have shown their support for impeachment. That spells big trouble for Trump. If the Democratic nominee is smart, they will address those voters now in order to shore up a strong base for 2020 – in other words, they’ll have to play Trump at his own game.

Yours,

Holly Baxter

US comment editor