The world is watching Trump – and Trump is watching Georgia

The night before Donald Trump’s notorious Helsinki summit with Vladimir Putin in July 2018, a world leader tweeted that the poor relations between their two countries was the fault of “US foolishness and stupidity”.

Who would make such a bold anti-American statement on the eve of a meeting that had the world’s eyes upon it? The leader of a central Asian republic trying to curry favour in Moscow, perhaps. The ayatollahs in Tehran, spitting venom at the Great Satan? Or maybe an anti-imperialist in South or Central America giving their bullying northern neighbour a kick in the pants.

Well, no, it was of course Donald Trump himself. His unabashed willingness to put himself above the needs of his country, richly illustrated by his words and actions over four years, means it’s no surprise that the latest target of his ire is the American electoral system (a system the US has previously been keen to recommend to other parts of the world).

After a convincing – if narrower than expected – defeat by Democrat Joe Biden, Trump and his inner circle are desperately trying to find evidence of voter fraud. As The Independent’s Richard Hall has recounted, Trump has a long and inglorious history of claiming that anyone who bests him in a contest must have been cheating: losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, losing a primary to Ted Cruz, even The Apprentice losing out at the Emmys. As with his habit of saying the quiet bit out loud, he has been telegraphing his scheme for months, claiming (without evidence) that mail-in voting is susceptible to widespread fraud.

How much damage could this do? 

Biden has called Trump’s stance an “embarrassment" and the president-elect’s campaign staff have let it be known that the secret service will be called upon to remove “trespassers” from the White House come 20 January should that be necessary.

Most senior Republicans, including Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, have got at least partly on board with their outgoing leader, insisting that “all legal votes should be counted” (not something anyone disagrees with) but generally stopping short of repeating outlandish and unsubstantiated allegations of fraud. 

However, GOP bigwigs are not necessarily focused on who gets to wake up in the White House on 21 January. They have another date in mind: 5 January. That’s when both of Georgia’s Republican senators face election run-offs against their Democratic challengers. At stake is control of America’s powerful upper chamber for the next two years. For some, this is as important a race as that for the presidency.

Top Republicans appear to be walking a tightrope between stating the obvious – that Trump lost the election fair and square – and keeping the MAGA crowd on board for the epic fight in the Peach State. 

But as The Independent’s Griffin Connolly reported, this is a high wire act – it’s one thing playing up to the hardcore Trump fans, but merrily joining in an attack on the American democratic system without good reason may not sit well with moderate Republicans or swing voters. After all, Georgia’s presidential race looks certain to be certified for Biden, the first time it will have turned Democratic blue since 1992.

Trump’s pre-Helsinki tweet attacking US policy towards Russia evokes another key element of his political personality: distancing himself from the establishment know-nothings who came before him and supposedly made such a mess of everything. It’s a crucial part of his appeal to people who readily believe in a “deep state” stealing elections (let alone in conspiracies about cannibalistic paedophile rings run by Washington grandees).

That means the Georgia elections could be an early sign of Trump’s staying power after his White House exit and a measure of his continuing popularity after becoming the first one-term president for nearly 30 years. Will he be tempted to try a Berlusconi-style comeback – assuming he wouldn’t rather just criticise from the sidelines? Or will the Republican Party (many of whose establishment members detest him) be emboldened to start tentatively moving in a new direction?

In the meantime, America’s friends and enemies look on with a mixture of alarm and glee as it trashes its democratic traditions before a watching world.

Yours,

Phil Thomas

US assistant editor