Will Trump and DeSantis end up destroying each other?

Been there, Don that” was the headline in the small column written about Donald Trump’s 2024 announcement in the New York Post this week. The right-leaning tabloid newspaper – a key part of the Murdoch media empire – took a firm stance on the former president putting himself forward for office again, two years after failing to gain a second term.

In an article whose byline was simply “Post staff”, it referred to Trump as “a Florida retiree” before going on to state: “His cholesterol levels are unknown, but his favorite food is charred steak with ketchup.” It then poked undisguised fun at the fact that No 45 likes to refer to himself as a “stable genius”. In its final sentence, the Post conceded: “Trump also served as the 45th president.”

It was a less-than-lukewarm reception from one of the only coastal newspapers Trump might’ve hoped would drum up some enthusiasm for his run. The progressives are, for obvious reasons, not on his side. And now, after the much-vaunted “red wave” failed to materialise in last week’s midterm elections and Trump-backed candidates did particularly badly, conservatives aren’t too hot on him, either. Most have transferred their loyalty to Ron DeSantis, the one-time Trump protege who is now heckled by the former president as “Ron DeSanctimonious”. It’s a surprisingly multisyllabic nickname for Trump, but it probably won’t do much damage.

It seems clear to almost everyone except the former president that DeSantis – a very popular Florida governor, even if many might find his politics downright distasteful – will run in 2024 and will likely win the Republican nomination. That leads Trump to strategise whether he wants to face a potentially bruising Republican primary – during which DeSantis will repeatedly point to him as an unpopular, washed-up, twice-impeached, one-term presidential failure – or go elsewhere. After all, running for the GOP is only his first option. There are others.

Trump’s second option looks more attractive for him and for the country. Rather than hitch his wagon to the GOP again, he could walk away from the party altogether and run as an independent candidate. He has a base that very well might turn out for him in big numbers. He could avoid the early onstage battles with DeSantis and any other Republicans who might seek to do him damage. And he can once again portray himself as an outsider, a maverick, an anti-establishmentarian. He can wax lyrical about an anti-democratic two-party state while claiming he has the knowledge from his White House run to turn everything around. But of course, the globalists and the swamp monsters and the paedophile Democrats and the Illuminati Republicans definitely wouldn’t want that.

Bonus: if Trump and DeSantis ran against each other as an independent and a Republican candidate respectively, one can presume they would split the far-right vote. That would be a dream scenario for Democrats.

But then again, would Trump leave behind his dedicated Maga core within the Republican Party? He is the reason why the Marjorie Taylor Greenes of this world are inside Congress. He elevated the careers of a heck of a lot of fringe figures who otherwise would never have had the publicity or the access to funds that allowed them political success. They are loudly grateful. They have been urging fellow Republicans not to desert the Trump project now. And they can hardly be his biggest cheerleaders if he declares the entire party just another part of the swamp.

Whatever Trump decides, he’s entering into risky territory now. Without the support of the right-wing media – even Fox News has been backing away – and without the reluctant acquiescence of GOP heavyweights like Mitch McConnell, he’s toast. At one time, he could tell people who’d spent decades of their lives in politics exactly what to do. They nodded and bit their lips because he sold out the rallies and brought in the votes. But now, he’s delivered what they wanted – a conservative-leaning Supreme Court that overturns women’s and other civil rights – and outlasted his usefulness. The McConnells, Kevin McCarthys and Mike Pences of this world who had to suck up so much of his criticism now hold the keys to his demise. And no doubt they’ll crack a smile when they twist them.

Yours,

Holly Baxter

US executive editor (social justice and equity)