Suella Braverman’s campaign to be the next PM isn’t very subtle

If MPs of the government party think they are going to lose the next election, they usually divide into three groups. Some start to look for jobs outside the Commons; others plot to change their leader in an attempt to avoid defeat; and a third group position themselves for the leadership contest after the election.

The most blatant member of the third group is Suella Braverman, the new home secretary. She was the only cabinet minister who seemed to be enjoying the Conservative conference in Birmingham. She was the only one who provoked spontaneous enthusiasm for her main speech, and she toured the fringe meetings dropping disloyal bombs aimed at winning the vote of party members in the next leadership election.

As cabinet discipline frayed and other ministers spoke out against cutting benefits, she aired her disagreement with the prime minister over immigration. Liz Truss is reported to be considering allowing more skilled workers to come to the UK as part of her “supply side reforms”, but Braverman said she wanted less immigration, and even said she wanted to go back to the “tens of thousands a year” target that David Cameron was forced to abandon.

She advertised her doubts about any visa provisions in the trade deal with India that Truss wants to sign, and she has repeated her desire to repudiate the European Convention on Human Rights. The first attempt to remove asylum seekers to Rwanda was blocked by a European Court of Human Rights injunction. Braverman accepts that it is not government policy to pull out of the convention, but said: “I think we have to introduce some form of blocker on the ECHR.”

This is the latest zig in the erratic course of the preferences of the Tory grassroots. Who knows what is happening to the roots, but the grass itself is long, and blown hither and thither by the wind of ideological fashion. Having only just decided that Truss was the “right wing” candidate because she offered tax cuts, they seem to have already gone off the economic liberalism that went with the offer. Braverman seems to calculate that party members will now define “right wing” as “more restrictive on immigration”.

She didn’t get far in this year’s leadership election, starting with just 32 MPs’ votes out of 357, before going down to 27 in the second round and being eliminated. But she appears to see her chance next time, assuming the party members decide.

It is not subtle, and it is an indication of how weak the prime minister’s position is that one of her top cabinet ministers is so openly manoeuvring for the next contest.

Yours,

John Rentoul

Chief political commentator