Do opinion polls really show the British people want to rejoin the EU?

For a long time after the European Union referendum, public opinion seemed evenly divided, as it had been in the referendum itself, on the question of whether the vote to leave was right or wrong. Remainers tended to feel more strongly about it, the losing side being galvanised by defeat, a phenomenon familiar after the Scottish independence referendum in 2014.

But throughout the negotiation of the Brexit deals there was always a block of Remainers who thought we should leave the EU because that was what a majority, however narrowly, had voted for.

Britain finally left the EU single market on 1 January 2021, when the transitional period ended and, after about six months of the new arrangements, opinion started to turn against the idea. Now an average of 60 per cent say the vote to leave was “wrong” and 40 per cent say it was “right” (excluding about 12 per cent who say they don’t know).

Initially, it seemed that this was less an example of buyer’s remorse and more a negative response to the government’s handling of Brexit. Although people thought the imposition of trade barriers with the EU had not been managed well, there did not seem to be an increase in the numbers who wanted to reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU.

Yet the numbers who did want to rejoin were always high. As soon as Britain actually left the EU, the Remainers who thought it was right that we should leave disappeared, merging with their fellow Remainers who had resisted leaving until it happened. Once we had left, Remainers who wanted the result of the referendum to be implemented seemed to think that democracy had been respected and that it was now permissible to vote to reverse the decision in another (hypothetical) referendum.

Again, public opinion was evenly divided – until the second half of this year. Now an average of 56 per cent say “rejoin” and 44 per cent say “stay out”. The gap is not as wide as between the backward-looking “right” versus “wrong” views, but it looks as if there is a solid majority in favour of reversing Brexit. Which makes it all the stranger that only one major party is in favour of rejoining, and the Scottish National Party wants only part of the UK to go back into the EU.

However, a new poll by Omnisis suggests that support for rejoining the EU might be soft. Carried out on Thursday and Friday, the poll found that 57 per cent would vote to rejoin in another referendum on EU membership and 43 per cent would vote to stay out.

To keep up to speed with all the latest opinions and comment, sign up to our free weekly Voices Dispatches newsletter by clicking here

But the poll then asked rejoiners: “Would the requirement to adopt the euro as currency change your decision?” Then about half of them said they would still vote to rejoin, while half said they wouldn’t.

Of course, new EU members are required to say that they will adopt the euro, but many haven’t. Sweden even had a referendum on it and rejected the idea. The EU would be unlikely to insist on a binding commitment as a condition of the UK rejoining, but this poll raises important questions. Would the EU have us back? And what would the terms of rejoining be? Given that we would be unlikely to be granted all the opt-outs and rebates we had before, would people really support giving membership another go?

This poll suggests that the real support for rejoining is much lower than the headline figures.

Yours,

John Rentoul

Chief political commentator