Is another EU exit on the cards? I wouldn’t bet on it

In the heady hours after the Brexit vote in June 2016, an excited Nigel Farage said other countries could follow Britain’s exit from the European Union.

And not just any country. Specifically, Mr Farage mentioned the Netherlands. “We may well be close, perhaps, to a Nexit,” he beamed.

Five years on, the Netherlands remains part of the EU, but conditions, as Dutch voters go to the polls this week, seem ripe for such a change.

Mark Rutte’s government collapsed earlier this year, brought down by a benefits scandal, and there’s widespread unhappiness about the country’s approach to the coronavirus.

The anti-immigration politician Geert Wilders, who once spoke about bringing down the European Union, is still a popular force and his party are second in the opinion polls.

And the Dutch have lost one of their strongest EU allies, the UK. Amsterdam, like London, could always be relied on to moan about events and decisions in Brussels and Strasbourg. Surely, Nexit is an idea whose time has come? Well, no.

Read more:

Despite all of the above, it appears that Rutte will more than likely be re-elected as the Dutch prime minister later this week. He has seemingly overcome scandal and criticism to maintain a healthy lead in the polls, despite eleventh-hour support for Wilders and his Freedom Party.

During a long election campaign, Nexit and the EU have barely been mentioned.

Instead, it seems there is a degree of happiness about being a member of the EU. A recent poll by Eurobarometer found that 69 per cent of people in the Netherlands support continued EU membership and 79 per cent said last November that being part of the EU was “a good thing”.

Some might claim that Eurobarometer – which carries out public opinion polls on behalf of the European Commission – would say that, wouldn’t they? But, undeniably, 69 and 79 per cent are majorities that any leading Brexiteer or Nexiteer would love.

The election has been dominated instead by the issue of the coronavirus.

Farage may well be right eventually on the Netherlands – after all, he had the last laugh in the UK – but for now, Nexit is a no-go.

Yours,

David Harding

International editor