If Labour loses Batley and Spen, Starmer will face renewed calls to step down

The Conservatives are set to gain another seat from Labour, according to a Survation poll of the Batley and Spen constituency, where there is a by-election on Thursday week.

The poll puts Ryan Stephenson, the Tory candidate, on 47 per cent; Kim Leadbeater, Labour, on 41 per cent; and George Galloway, Workers Party, on 6 per cent. If anything, I would expect opinion to move against Labour in the final two weeks, as it did in Hartlepool, another northern Leave seat, which Labour lost last month.

So I think the chances are that Keir Starmer is heading for another disastrous defeat, and will face renewed calls to step down as Labour leader. Indeed, Galloway, the former Labour MP, is asking people for their votes on the simple premise that he can “get rid of Starmer”. This is an admission by Galloway that he cannot win, but he can make sure Labour loses – although on these polling numbers it looks as if Labour would lose even without Galloway’s interference.

If the Tories win Batley and Spen, then, how much trouble is Starmer in? The rumbling of discontent in the Labour Party is undoubtedly getting louder. Even loyal MPs were disbelieving and angry that Starmer failed to ask Boris Johnson at Prime Minister’s Questions last week about his WhatsApp message calling Matt Hancock, the health secretary, “totally effing hopeless”. Starmer’s spokesperson said the message had just been published by Dominic Cummings 10 minutes beforehand, but several MPs complained privately that Starmer didn’t have enough of a killer instinct.

The departure last week of Ben Nunn, Starmer’s director of communications, suggests that all is not well in the leader’s office, after a botched shadow cabinet reshuffle in the wake of the elections last month.

But Starmer’s grip on the leadership is strengthened by the absence of an obvious alternative leader. Some supporters of Jeremy Corbyn have been agitating against Starmer, but they do not have a candidate – and besides, they lack the 40 MPs required to mount a leadership challenge.

The speculation about Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester, or Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, returning to the Commons as possible leadership candidates only emphasises the lack of MPs who might be considered by 40 of their colleagues to be capable of doing a better job than Starmer.

So I don’t think Starmer is under any immediate threat, but his resilience is certainly going to be tested in the months ahead.

Yours,

John Rentoul

Chief political commentator