Italy election: Why we should all be paying attention to this far-right coalition

There is plenty of talk about the US midterms in November, but before then is another election that could have far-reaching global repercussions. On 25 September, Italy goes to the polls, and the result there threatens to trigger a political earthquake in Europe.

Leading the polls and looking set to win power is Italy’s version of an unholy trinity. A coalition led by the Brothers of Italy – a far-right group whose leader is a new shining light of the country’s political scene, Giorgia Meloni – also includes the equally right-wing League party, headed by Matteo Salvini, and making yet another comeback is Silvio Berlusconi, still leader of his Forza Italia party at the age of 85.

Meloni could even become Italy’s first female prime minister if the result goes the way of the opinion polls. There may be little else that is progressive about the coalition. Meloni went online recently to claim that, if she was victorious, her coalition would not represent a threat to democracy – not the most reassuring boast ahead of an election.

Whatever its aims might be, it is unclear what a victory for the coalition would mean for Italy. It may have the effect of making it a more conservative and nationalist country, in the vein of fellow European Union states (and political bedfellows) Hungary and Poland. It is almost certain to make life more uncomfortable for minorities.

It could also have big implications for the EU’s faltering attempts at unity when it comes to Russia and sanctions. Under its former leader, Mario Draghi, Italy fully backed sanctions against Moscow.

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But the prospective new government, claiming it is tapping into popular sentiment in a country where almost two-thirds of people blame the US for the Ukraine war, wants to see changes.

At the weekend, Salvini, who early in the conflict was openly derided for being a “friend” of Putin, said the West needed a “rethink” on sanctions. And Berlusconi and the Russian leader have been close friends for some time. Putin gave the Italian a four-poster bed, in which Berlusconi apparently had sex with an escort in 2008. Berlusconi gave Putin a gift of a duvet, with a cover featuring an image of the two men. He may have even provided plastic surgery tips.

The result of the vote will be watched with great interest, and not just in Rome – Kyiv and Moscow will be keeping a close eye, also.

Yours,

David Harding

International editor