Donald Trump’s impeachment is going public – but do everyday Americans care?

This week the impeachment hearings against Donald Trump go public.

After weeks of evidence behind closed doors, congress is allowing in television cameras to show witnesses being grilled by Democrats desperate to force the president from office, and Republicans prepared to do almost anything to protect him.

Adam Schiff, the California congressman leading the attack, has been clear about what he thinks the purpose of this new phase is: “Those open hearings will be an opportunity for the American people to evaluate the witnesses for themselves, but also to learn first-hand about the facts of the president’s misconduct.”

But will anyone be watching? And if they are, can anyone’s mind be changed?

At the height of the Watergate hearings in 1973, more than 70 per cent of the public watched at least some of the evidence, according to Gallup.

That was a different time, of course. Not only was the idea of a criminal president a horrific novelty to a generation raised on the gritty integrity of war, but home entertainment options were limited.

Surely today’s public is too taken up by the unforgiving demands of Fortnite and the possibility of a Friends reunion to care?

Actually, it would be wrong to underestimate America’s hunger for political drama. Recent Capitol Hill showpieces have drawn impressive viewing figures.

Twenty million watched Brett Kavanaugh’s tear-filled Supreme Court confirmation hearing. The testimony of James Comey, fired as FBI chief by Trump over “this Russia thing” drew 19.5 million. The president’s former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, was watched by an estimated 16 million, while special counsel Robert Mueller’s testimony – largely dismissed as a flat performance – attracted 13 million.

Those figures don’t compare badly with the likes of The Big Bang Theory, NCIS or Blue Bloods.

But even if people do tune in, will what they see make any difference to what they think?

Common wisdom dictates several apparently incontrovertible truths.

First, anyone who has taken any interest in Trump’s Ukraine dealings has already made up their mind. He shamelessly abused his office. He did nothing wrong and is the victim of a witch-hunt. Take your pick.

Second, the whole process is predetermined. The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives will pass articles of impeachment – effectively charges of wrongdoing – against the president. Then the Republican-controlled Senate will hold a trial and find he did nothing wrong. Game over.

Well, perhaps.

It’s true that Republicans have so far shown little appetite for insubordination. A vote on impeachment in the lower house saw a perfectly round number of GOP rebels: zero. Florida Republican Francis Rooney, a tough oilman who had spent the previous days exhibiting a dangerous independence of thought, dutifully fell into line when the time came, perhaps conscious that his wobble was causing disquiet back home.

If any Senate Republicans are to move against Trump, it will have to be their constituents who change their minds for them.

With a year until the election, a collapse in support for Trump will certainly get their attention.

During the Watergate hearings in 1973, President Richard Nixon’s poll ratings imploded. In January of that year his Gallup approval rating was a healthy 65 per cent. In May, when the hearings began, it slipped to 44 per cent. By August 1974, with America absorbing one incriminating revelation after another, it had fallen to 24 per cent – at which point he resigned.

Trump will not resign. He would rather gift Mar-a-Lago to Hillary Clinton.

But if Republicans come to believe impeachment is making him ­– and them – toxic, they may be spurred into action. And polls suggest more than 50 per cent of the public already back impeachment.

The accepted wisdom may play out as expected. But don’t discount surprises completely.

Yours,

Phil Thomas

US assistant editor