For the Republican Party, 2023 will be a crucial year

The period around Christmas and New Year is always somewhat slow for political news – at least for the UK and the US, with both parliament and congress being out of session.

Not that there isn’t plenty for politicians to be thinking about, from the extreme cold across significant parts of America – expertly covered by our team in the US – to the cost of living crisis the UK is facing.

However, the quieter time has got me thinking about what is to come, a year of political jostling as both nations prepare for significant election events in 2024. In the US, a presidential election. In the UK, a general election (which is due to be held before January 2025). While there has already been talk of tactical voting in the UK, as my colleague Adam Forrest, reports – in the US, attention has focused on Donald Trump.

“Whatever next?” you might think, given the former president’s ubiquity in the news. However, in the middle of all the controversies around events at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 (and much else besides), he actually declared another run for the presidency. The issue for Republicans during 2023 will be who goes up against him for the party’s presidential nomination. Trump has declared relatively early (although historically it is not a complete outlier, according to the political analysts at FiveThirtyEight) – so when can we expect challengers to start appearing?

Ron DeSantis, who won re-election as Florida’s governor in November’s midterm elections, has long been seen as the frontrunner to be Trump’s main rival – with DeSantis being seen as “Trump without the baggage”. Reports also have the former vice president, Mike Pence, looking for extra fundraising aides, while the team for the former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, is said to have reached out to potential staff in early presidential primary states. Not that this means a run will come into being, but it is worth noting.

For DeSantis, announcing a run after the end of Florida’s legislative session in early May might be beneficial – given that it would allow him to start a presidential campaign by touting his policy achievements there – and may help with Republican voters in other parts of the country. Other possible contenders may decide they need to get the jump on that potential course of action by announcing earlier in 2023.

It should certainly be an interesting year.

Yours,

Chris Stevenson

Premium editor