Boris Johnson has a problem with expectations management – and it may end up costing him

When Boris Johnson finally unveils his roadmap out of lockdown on Monday, the success or failure of his message will depend to a great degree on how successfully he has managed expectations.

This is one of the most crucial skills for a politician, and it’s one that the prime minister has so far not shown himself a master of.

The theory is that a government that promises a little and delivers a bit more will reap the gratitude of voters who feel they are getting more than they expected. Conversely, a government that promises the moon and the stars but falls short even by a fraction will be regarded as having failed.

This presents a dilemma for a politician like Johnson, who can’t see an upland without declaring it “sunlit” or consider the future without telling you how bright it is.

While this might have helped him persuade millions of voters to accompany him on the perilous project of cutting the UK off from its traditional markets in the European Union, even he would admit that it has not proved a useful approach to the coronavirus pandemic.

Whether declaring – some 48 weeks ago – that Britain could “turn the tide” on Covid-19 in 12 weeks, or denouncing as “inhuman” the idea of cancelling Christmas get-togethers, Mr Johnson has repeatedly planted in voters’ heads the idea that they will soon be able to get back to something more like normal life.

Disappointment has been a feature of the last year as each hopeful – and premature – step out of lockdown has been followed by the despair of new restrictions.

The PM has certainly made more of an effort this time round to rein in his more exuberant side, insisting that his blueprint for recovery will be “cautious but irreversible”.

The delicately balanced slogan attempts to solicit patience from Tory MPs, businesses and voters eager for a return to normality, on the back of a promise that if we don’t rush things this time round we need never go back into lockdown again.

The effort may have been undermined, however, by Johnson’s decision to announce in advance the fact that he was going to produce a roadmap at all.

This fell foul of that other immutable political law that as soon as a date is fixed for anything, the newspapers, airwaves and Westminster corridors are immediately consumed by speculation about what happens next.

A frenzy of theories has spilled out about reopening dates for everything from pubs and restaurants to gyms, hairdressers and soft play areas, with hopes raised that people may be able to go on holiday in the UK at Easter and the Med in the spring, return to the sports stadia for the men's European Championship in football or Wimbledon in June or don their wellies for music festivals this summer.

If all Johnson can offer on Monday is that a few primary school classes will go back next month, with other restrictions lifted as and when the virus and the vaccine rollout permit, there will be an awful lot of disappointed people cancelling plans that his promise of a way out encouraged them to make.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor