It’s easy to see why Lord Frost has been forced into such contortions this week

One of the most peculiar spectacles in the world of politics this week has been Boris Johnson’s Brexit chief David Frost going around telling anyone who’ll listen how bad the deal he negotiated with Brussels was.

In a series of jaw-on-the-floor interventions, Lord Frost has complained that the Northern Ireland protocol, which the PM agreed at the end of 2019, has been disrupting trade in the province.

Apparently, no one in Downing Street anticipated that erecting a customs border in the Irish Sea would result in customs checks on goods travelling from the British mainland.

Seemingly – if his aide’s protestations are to be taken at face value – Boris Johnson was sincere when he told Northern Ireland businesses that, contrary to the terms of the agreement he signed, he believed any customs documentation could simply be thrown in the bin.

Of course, Lord Frost’s latest insights are not couched in terms of an apology for failing to heed the warnings not only of Remainers who were dismissed as Project Fear-mongers when they raised concerns about exactly these problems, but also of the Tories’ erstwhile DUP allies who said an Irish Sea border would risk the union and Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May who said no British PM would ever sign up to one.

Instead, he has issued dark threats about walking away from elements of the agreement unless the EU shows “common sense” and “flexibility” about applying its terms.

The fact that he has not actually accused the EU of any actual breaches of the protocol has only fuelled the belief in Westminster that what he is attempting to do is set up Brussels as the scapegoat for what seems increasingly likely to be his failure to secure concessions in ongoing talks with European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic.

The bemused response shown by Brussels and Dublin suggests his sabre-rattling is failing to alarm them and Johnson may soon be faced with the choice of whether to invoke Article 16 of the protocol – which allows the UK to withdraw from elements of the deal causing difficulties in Northern Ireland, at the price of allowing the EU to impose tariffs or other counter-measures in retaliation – or to just let things slide.

One thing the prime minister seems dead set against is Brussels’ proposal of signing up to EU rules on food hygiene and animal welfare, which would remove the bulk of the border checks at a stroke, but would deny him the option of lowering UK standards in order to secure a trade deal with the USA.

The prospect of that deal has receded with the election of president Joe Biden, but Johnson knows that if it is ever to be revived, he will need to be armed with a bit of flexibility over American demands for new markets for its chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-boosted beef.

But that is where the whole plan runs up against the other big post-Brexit row on the PM’s plate this week – plans for a trade deal with Australia.

Johnson and his trade supremo Liz Truss are eager to have that agreement wrapped up by the time Aussie PM Scott Morrison visits Cornwall for next month’s G7 summit. But the deal is facing open hostility from the UK’s farmers – backed by some in Johnson’s own cabinet – who fear an influx of cheap lamb and beef from Down Under will force many of them out of business.

In response, the government insists that the deal will not allow Australian ranchers to “undercut” domestic formers. This raises the question of why the Australians would want an agreement that prevents them from competing.

So we’re left with a PM risking a rancorous clash with our biggest trading partner in order to preserve his flexibility to cut smaller-scale deals which are going to thrust him into a rancorous clash with some of his own supporters at home. No wonder Lord Frost has been forced into such contortions this week.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political Editor