Boris Johnson believes that his Omicron gamble has paid off

He’s not quite punching the air in victory yet, but Westminster has this week witnessed clear signs that Boris Johnson believes he has won a high-stakes gamble on Omicron that could rescue his premiership.

In the run-up to Christmas, while the other nations of the UK were announcing new restrictions to rein in the contagious new variant, the prime minister horrified many by turning his back on calls to close nightclubs, order social distancing and generally call off new year celebrations in England.

Now, with deaths from Omicron remaining well shy of the 6,000-a-day worst-case scenario set out in scientific models last month, he clearly feels he has got away with it.

Not only did he tell the House of Commons there will be no toughening of plan B restrictions, but he also boasted that in fact his light-touch, “balanced and proportionate” approach, relying on boosters rather than curbs on everyday life, is the key to getting the country working and delivering economic growth. And he left little doubt that he expects Omicron to be in the past before long, telling MPs life would be “much closer to normality” by the time of the next review of restrictions on 26 January.

All of this, of course, is of little reassurance to the NHS workers on the front line, for all too many of whom “riding out” the Omicron wave – as the prime minister suggests – means a nightmare succession of long shifts of flat-out work in emergency conditions, watching non-Covid patients have vital procedures delayed while beds are filled with victims of the virus.

They are the ones bearing the brunt of Johnson’s gamble and it seems that – so long as the NHS isn’t visibly collapsing around their ears – he is ready to let them take the strain for what he hopes will be no more than a few weeks until the Omicron wave recedes.

Johnson clearly hopes that this scenario will allow him to emerge as the doughty defender of England’s interests, who saw off the lily-livered lovers of lockdowns, kept businesses afloat and allowed us to party our way through the final throes of the pandemic. He has already started accusing Labour of wanting to force a festive lockdown on the country, when at the time they were making no such demand. Maybe this is how the pre-Christmas fuss about No 10 parties that inflicted such a hit on his poll ratings can all be forgotten.

However, in a way, his approach has highlighted not strength but the weakness in his position. The rebellion of 99 Tory MPs against the relatively mild plan B sent a clear signal to Johnson about the limit to his ability to order his own party around if he wants to stay as leader.

It was Conservative MPs rather than the prime minister who decided they weren’t going to put up with more restrictions. And it was the cabinet that eventually knocked the idea on the head, when Mr Johnson gave the scientists the opportunity to try to persuade them ahead of the Christmas break.

To keep up to speed with all the latest opinions and comment, sign up to our free weekly Voices Dispatches newsletter by clicking here

Forced to choose between the precautionary approach favoured by his counterparts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland or a bet on Omicron turning out to be no more of a threat than the regular winter flu season, Johnson took a look at the restive mood of his party and opted to gamble.

So far, the numbers have run his way – though, of course, at the cost of numerous deaths and illnesses that may otherwise not have happened. But even Downing Street admits it does not know whether Omicron has yet peaked. The longer that peak fails to arrive and infections and deaths continue to rise, the less wise the prime minister’s wager will seem.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor