Is Boris Johnson really safe at No 10 for another 12 months?

Boris Johnson is still dusting himself down after a bruising battle with backbench Tory rebels and the humiliating no-confidence vote “victory”, which saw 41 per cent of his own MPs try to get rid of him.

No 10 officials are said to believe that the prime minister is “through the worst” of Partygate and can now concentrate on the uphill fight to regain some degree of public popularity – safe in the knowledge that he cannot face another confidence vote for 12 months.

But is the PM really safe from further leadership challenges in the year ahead? Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee that decides on confidence ballots, raised a few eyebrows on Thursday when he discussed a “possible” change in the rules.

The grandee said there were no current plans or discussions on the committee executive about amending the regulation that grants the PM a 12-month grace period from new challenges – though he opened the door by conceding changes were “possible” in future.

Saying the rule would “likely” remain in place, Sir Graham told Times Radio. “Of course, it is technically possible that laws can be changed in the future.” Some rebels believe that the 1922 Committee could be pushed into changing the rule if it became clear that Johnson had lost the support of a significantly larger chunk of the parliamentary party.

The other route that could see Mr Johnson brought low inside of 12 months is a wider vote in the Commons. Any Labour or Liberal Democrat no-confidence motion right now would only raise the hackles of Tory MPs.

But the upcoming privileges committee inquiry could change the picture. Tory rebel David Davis has raised the prospect that Johnson could be deposed by a Commons vote on “his ability to continue” later this year if the inquiry finds he has misled parliament.

A more likely scenario is a good old-fashioned push by cabinet ministers. Mass resignations, perhaps sparked by a damning inquiry verdict, or a brand-new cock-up by the PM, or by ongoing dire poll numbers, could bring his time to an end before the summer of 2023.

In any event, Johnson faces an enormous challenge trying to stave off a challenge next year in the hope of leading the party into the next general election. Unless he inspires an astonishing poll recovery, the knives, ever sharpened by his enemies, will be out once again.

Yours,

Adam Forrest

Political correspondent