There’s only one reason why Boris Johnson wants to be an MP

Boris Johnson’s decision to fight the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency at the next general election effectively amounts to confirmation that he believes he will at some point return as leader of the Conservative Party.

No one who has studied the former prime minister could believe that he wants to stay in the House of Commons in order to serve quietly as an assiduous constituency MP or as loyal voting fodder for his successors as leader. If he wants to retain his place on the green benches, it can be for one reason only – that he still believes he can make the ultimate comeback and return to 10 Downing Street.

October’s abortive bid to replace Liz Truss as PM, little over a month after his ejection from No 10, laid bare the insatiability of his yearning to reclaim the crown he believes was wrongly taken from him over Partygate.

Even some supporters were amazed by his decision to enter the fray from his Caribbean holiday, arguing that the bid came too soon, while voters were still sore about lockdown-breaching Downing Street parties.

They argued he should wait until the conclusion of a Commons standards inquiry, expected early in the new year, over whether he misled MPs about how much he knew of the scandal.

If he is found guilty, he could face suspension from parliament and be forced to fight a by-election in Uxbridge before the next general election. But if he is cleared or escapes with a slap on the wrist, we can expect him to start campaigning in earnest to unseat Sunak in time to fight the general election as leader.

Many around Johnson regard Sunak as a traitor who stabbed the former PM in the back by quitting as chancellor. They believe that his high-tax, low-spending Budget spells doom for the Tories at the next election, and that persistently poor polling figures will make him vulnerable as ballot day approaches.

With the prospect of his party being reduced to a rump, few believe that Johnson would delay his pitch for the leadership until after the election, when the only prize on offer would be the unenviable job of leader of the opposition.

If Labour maintains leads of 20 points or more in the polls, he will be well-placed to present himself in 2023 or early 2024 as the only person capable of staving off Tory meltdown, a proven election winner with a positive, optimistic message and a mandate from voters earned in 2019.

He knows that a hefty chunk of the Tory membership want him back and might well have chosen him over Sunak if they had been allowed a vote in October. His hope is that Tory MPs who shied away from him then will return to his side as their minds focus on the threat of annihilation in 2024.

All of this seems quite plausible in the context of a Tory party that appears already to have gone cold on Sunak, recently rated sixth least popular member of the cabinet in a monthly survey of activists.

What is more questionable is whether voters would welcome the former PM back with open arms.

The most recent YouGov poll on his popularity, in August, found just 11 per cent regard him as trustworthy, 38 per cent as likeable and 30 per cent as strong. There is increasing discontent with the Brexit project which forms his political legacy. And by 2024, the Covid inquiry will have pushed questions about his handling of the pandemic back to the top of the agenda.

There is every possibility that the glory of return to power for Johnson would swiftly be followed by the bitterest of defeats as he is rejected by voters.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor