Santa or the Grinch? It’s the dilemma Boris Johnson faces this Covid Christmas

The government has said throughout the coronavirus crisis that it will be “guided by the science” in deciding what restrictions to place on social and economic life.

And much to ministers’ own surprise, the public have seemed largely willing to go along with that, giving up work, sport, shopping, holidays and evenings out in a national effort to beat the disease.

But now Boris Johnson is confronted with the one sacrifice that he and those around him fear will be too much to ask people to make – Christmas.

For weeks now, government has been gripped with the problem posed by the looming festive season.

On any scientific basis, no one would suggest late December as a good time to relax our guard against a respiratory disease which would always be expected to be at its worst in the winter.

The growth in Covid-19 infections and deaths may have slowed a little since the introduction of England’s second lockdown, but few looking at tallies of around 20,000 new cases and 500 fatalities a day would confidently predict that in five or six weeks we will be ready to ditch restrictions.

But speaking to people in government, there are real worries that social distancing discipline which has held for so long will simply break down as Christmas approaches.

Families separated for months will simply decide that for a day or two they are going to abandon the rules and get together for a long weekend of turkey and telly and try to forget that 2020 ever happened, they fear.

And there is also immense pressure on Johnson to throw the lifeline to shops, pubs and restaurants of a few weeks’ normal trading during what would usually be their busiest season of the year.  

Hence the decision to lock England down for November, in the hope that the second wave of Covid would be tamed in time for December.

Hence the prime minister repeatedly stating his hope – but not yet a promise – that we can have “as normal a Christmas as possible”. (A typical politician’s phrase which sounds good, but means nothing, as “as normal as possible” could translate into “not very normal at all”.)

The counter-argument was set out clearly by Public Health England on Wednesday as they warned that each day of relaxation could need five days of tough restrictions to recover.

And government medical adviser Prof Andrew Hayward was even more stark as he warned that the UK was “on the cusp” of being able to protect the old people most vulnerable to Covid through vaccinations, and it would be “tragic” at this point to encourage them to mingle with younger family members in a way which would inevitably mean some being infected and even dying.

“My personal view is we’re putting far too much emphasis on having a near-normal Christmas,” said the UCL professor. “We know respiratory infections peak in January so throwing fuel on the fire over Christmas can only contribute to this.”

Meanwhile, non-Christians will be wondering why Christmas must be saved when Eid and Diwali and many other celebrations have been disrupted.

Downing Street has promised an announcement next week on its plans for Christmas and the weeks leading up to it. But despite speculation about a five- or three-day amnesty from restrictions, new “support bubble” schemes to allow family members from several different households to come together or rules barring hugs or kissing under the mistletoe, it seems clear that final decisions have not yet been made.

One spokesman even refused to comment on whether it would be a good idea for families to put their thickest Christmas sweaters on and open all the windows to minimise the risk while they eat their turkey and trimmings.

It’s a deeply unenviable dilemma for the prime minister. If infection rates are still high, does he give the go-ahead for an end-of-year party with an inevitable hangover in the form of increased spread of this fatal disease? Or does he go down in history as the first ruler of England since Oliver Cromwell to ban Christmas?  

Johnson will be watching the Covid figures like a hawk over the next few days in the hope they will provide him with an easy answer, but in the end the decision may come down to whether he wants to be Santa or the Grinch.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor