A cold war between the US and China may well follow this pandemic

Whether Donald Trump’s statements about China’s culpability for the coronavirus pandemic are true or not – and there is no compelling public evidence so far – the fact that the president believes such a thing is significant in itself. Indeed, even by his own blustery standards, there seems a genuine anger in the president’s voice when he states that he has seen intelligence assessments that indicate that the virus somehow came out of a laboratory in Wuhan.

Such drumbeats of hostility are growing more insistent. Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state and admittedly a Trump loyalist, has gone on the record with a claim of “enormous evidence” that the virus came from a Chinese lab. Even if it originated in bats, and has thus always existed in nature, and even if it is more likely to have crossed species barriers at a wildlife market, that is an extraordinary statement by the most senior American diplomat. There is also, reportedly, western intelligence gathered by the “five eyes” (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and the US) that indicates a Chinese cover-up and an effort to hoard medical supplies before admitting the epidemic had begun.

The Chinese strongly reject such allegations, and the arrogant and scapegoating mentality behind them. The Chinese ambassador in London, Liu Xiaoming, understandably, points out that China has been a victim of Covid-19, and that no one can be sure where this novel coronavirus originated. He insists that China notified the world about the epidemic as soon as possible.

In a sense, though, none of that matters much if the president of the United States is spoiling for a reckoning with China, as are others in the west. Mr Trump has found plenty of beefs already, after all: the US trade deficit with China; the influence of tech giants such as Huawei; the assertion of Chinese territorial claims and naval manoeuvres in east Asia, and the extension of Chinese economic power via the Belt and Road Initiative – the Trump White House has had plenty of quarrels with Beijing, and they have already erupted into trade wars and gunboat diplomacy in the South China Sea.

Though he has not quite said as much publicly, Mr Trump seems to be working himself up to presenting China with a “bill” for Covid-19 damages. That is something the Chinese will never agree to, and which America will never be able to secure – a long-term irresolvable bone of contention. The mutual resentment and suspicion over coronavirus adds another combustible layer to a worsening relationship. Thus a period of disengagement and a kind of cold war between China and America may well follow the pandemic.

There may be some ways out, though. Inexplicably, President Trump still enjoys an apparently warm relationship with President Xi, which might draw things back from the brink. Thus far, China has refused to allow American or other independent investigators to visit the public health laboratory in Wuhan. A fudge whereby a World Health Organisation task force undertakes a global investigation, including in China, might satisfy both sides in that particular row. Three decades of globalisation and extended supply chains also mean that transpacific economic and industrial cooperation is impossible to entirely reverse.

A change of personnel in the White House in November might also thaw hostilities. On the other hand, President Trump has said that Joe Biden would be too soft on China. This converts Trump’s belligerent attitude to America’s global rival into a plank of his election platform, inviting a popular mandate for his cold war with Beijing. That would be a very dangerous legacy of coronavirus.