Inside Politics: Johnson ‘cautiously optimistic’ on climate as leaders agree to cut methane emissions

World leaders may have jetted back to their respective countries on gas-guzzling planes, but there is still a long way to go at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow. Today is finance day at the crucial talks and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, will pledge to turn the UK into “the world’s first net zero-aligned financial centre”. Boris Johnson struck an upbeat tone as he prepared to leave Scotland, but some UN leaders and the opposition are warning there is a long way to go to keep “1.5°C alive”. Back in SW1, Tory MPs are to launch an unprecedented bid to overturn the suspension of former minister Owen Paterson, who broke lobbying rules. Meanwhile, the PM is giving France no concessions in the fishing row and the Lords has inflicted a heavy defeat on the government on its plans to restrict pension increases. Turns out it’s true what they say: turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

Scotland questions at 11.30 before PMQs at midday.

Coming up:

– Treasury minister John Glen on Times Radio Breakfast at 8.35am

– Shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy on LBC Radio at 8.50am

CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC: Just days after catastrophising about the fall of the Roman Empire, Boris Johnson struck an upbeat tone yesterday as he prepared to leave the crunch Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow. The PM said he was “cautiously optimistic” that the global temperature rise can be limited to 1.5°C after lashing out at world leaders for their lack of action. Labour says that while progress has been made, there is still a long way to go to reach that goal, adding that the summit needs to go beyond “pre-packaged announcements”. Johnson’s upbeat mood was echoed by some climate experts who have been buoyed by a pledge by nearly 100 countries pledging to cut back on the potent greenhouse gas methane at the Cop26 climate summit. The nations have agreed to slash methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030, when compared to levels in 2020. Brazil is among new signatories to the Global Methane Pledge, a deal spearheaded by the US and the European Union. But several of the top-five methane emitters, including China, Russia and India, have not yet signed the pledge.

BACK TO REALITY: It has been said that there are two camps at this summit: the optimists, who are desperate for the talks to be viewed as a success to “keep 1.5°C alive”, providing hope for future conferences; and the pessimists, who look at the numbers and the realpolitik and don’t much like what they see. Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general who yesterday told the conference to “stop treating nature like a toilet”, appears to fall into the latter category. He told BBC Scotland that it will be “very difficult” for Cop to secure deals to limit global temperature increases to 1.5°C. “I still think it is possible to take decisions to keep 1.5°C alive, but I am very worried with the geopolitical divides, with the issues of cooperation namely between developed countries and emerging economies. There is still a long way to go to come to a reasonable compromise.” Meanwhile, Europe could see near 50C heat every year by the end of the century if urgent action is not taken to slash greenhouse gas emissions, according to a Met Office analysis. This summer’s deadly European heatwave – named Lucifer – which saw a new temperature record of 48.8C set in Sicily, would have been impossible without the climate crisis, the analysis found.

ONE RULE FOR THEM: Tory MPs will later today attempt an unprecedented move to block the suspension of former minister Owen Paterson, who broke lobbying rules, with an independent parliamentary standards body saying he “repeatedly” used his position “to promote the companies by whom he was paid”. Jacob Rees-Mogg the Tory MP and leader of the House of Commons, has come to the defence of Paterson. “It is always very important that systems appear to be fair, and therefore if somebody has witnesses, it would normally appear to be fair that those witnesses should be heard,” Rees-Mogg said in a segment on his regular ConservativeHome podcast. Paterson is facing a six-week suspension from parliament and a possible recall by-election, after he was found by the Commons standards commission to have committed an “egregious” breach of lobbying rules. He claims the investigation against him was biased. Allies of Paterson have tabled two amendments in a bid to block his suspension. One of the amendments, tabled by Andrea Leadsom, suggests the case against the MP should be reviewed. The other, put forward by Julian Lewis, says no further action should be taken on “compassionate grounds” given the recent death of his wife.

TAKING NO PRISONERS: Johnson has insisted the UK is not making concessions to France over fishing rights, after President Emmanuel Macron put plans for retaliatory action on hold for 72 hours while further talks take place. Macron’s Europe minister Clement Beaune said the last-minute delay to sanctions which had been due to take effect on Tuesday morning was prompted by indications from the UK that it was ready to accelerate the process of finding a settlement to the dispute over licences for French boats to fish off the Channel Islands. Beaune said a response to French proposals was expected from London by the end of Wednesday. But Downing Street today insisted there was no change to its position on the handling of applications for fishing permits as set out in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing UK/EU relations following Brexit.

PEERS FOR PENSIONS: The government has suffered a heavy defeat in the House of Lords over its plans to restrict increases in the state pension. Peers by 280 votes to 178 backed a cross-party motion to keep retirement payouts linked to earnings – a large majority of 102. Under the amendment, the so-called “triple lock” would stay in place but adjustments would be allowed to be made for the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The government had wanted to suspend the triple lock entirely, breaking a Conservative manifesto commitment to keep it in place. Labour, which backed the cross-party amendment, says ministers are using the pandemic as a “smokescreen” to ditch the expensive policy commitment entirely.

“For all the prime minister’s fantasy football, we’re still a very long way behind. There has been some progress, but the next 10 days needs to move beyond the pre-packaged announcements. We need a real negotiation to secure the concrete plans for this decisive decade to keep 1.5°C alive.”

Labour’s shadow business secretary Ed Miliband on Cop26.

“Ah that’s how it works. All these years I’ve got it so wrong.”

BBC presenter and former England striker Gary Lineker pokes fun at the PM, who said the battle against climate change is going to “extra time” after world leaders pulled back “two goals”.

He previously said the world was 5-1 down.

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