Inside Politics: Swings and roundabouts

Boris Johnson is facing another major headache this morning after two damaging defeats in byelections. The prime minister, in Rwanda, has vowed to “keep going”. But will Tory MPs now relaunch efforts to deport him from 10 Downing Street?

Parliament is not sitting.

Boris Johnson’s premiership is back in crisis territory this morning as he stares down the barrel of two highly damaging byelection defeats in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton – as well as the resignation of his usually ultra-loyalist ally Oliver Dowden, the Tory chairman, who’s quit within the past few hours, publishing an excoriating letter in which he questions his party’s future under the Big Dog.

Scores on the doors.The Liberal Democrats overturned a majority the size of a small town to see off the Conservatives in Devon’s Tiverton and Honiton constituency – a “true blue” Tory stronghold in the southwest of England, which was until early this morning one of the party’s safest seats in the country.

Ed Davey’s Party needed a swing of at least 22.8 percentage points to win the seat. In the end, the party managed a swing of 29.9 points: the biggest-ever majority overturned at a byelection and the sixth biggest swing against a government since 1945. The Lib Dems exceeded expectations, with a majority of more than 6,000 in a contest that was expected to go down to the wire.

Richard Foord (LD) 22,537 (52.91%, +38.14%)

Helen Hurford (Con) 16,393 (38.49%, -21.72%)

Liz Pole (Lab) 1,562 (3.67%, -15.88%)

Gill Westcott (Green) 1,064 (2.50%, -1.34%)

Much has been said and written about the Lib Dem challenge in ‘blue wall’ seats and whether or not moderate Tory voters concerned about Partygate and Downing Street’s apparent willingness to break international law could switch allegiance, going yellow for Davey’s party. The result in Devon appears to provide further evidence that the process is well underway.

And the winning candidate there, Richard Foord, a former army major, had a strong message for the many Tory MPs across the south of England sitting on wafer-thin majorities where the Lib Dems are the main opposition and now very nervously looking over their shoulders:

“I also have a simple message for those Conservative MPs propping up this prime minister. The Liberal Democrats are coming. If you don’t take action to restore decency, respect and British values to Downing Street, you too will face election defeats like the one we’ve seen here tonight.”

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To Wakefield. Labour claims it is well on the way to “rebuilding the red wall” in the North of England and Midlands after its candidate Simon Lightwood won the Wakefield contest.

Scores on the doors. Labour overturned a majority of just over 3,000 to reclaim the West Yorkshire constituency from the Tories following the resignation of Ahmad Khan, who stood down following his conviction for sexually assaulting a teenage boy. Lightwood was elected with a majority of 4,925 on a swing of 12.7 per cent from the Tories to Labour.

Simon Lightwood (Lab) 13,166 (47.94%, +8.13%)

Nadeem Ahmed (Con) 8,241 (30.00%, -17.26%)

Akef Akbar (Ind) 2,090 (7.61%, +6.60%)

David Herdson (Yorkshire) 1,182 (4.30%, +2.38%)

Ashley Routh (Green) 587 (2.14%)

James Johnson of JL Partners, who used to run polling in No 10 for Theresa May, told the Politico website yesterday that a swing of more than 10 per cent from the Tories to Labour would represent a bad result for the governing party. It would be “indicative of heading towards a hung parliament or a close election result in line with where the polls currently are,” he said – an analysis polling expert Professor John Curtice broadly agreed with in a piece for The Independent.

In his victory speech, Lightwood said that “the next Labour government has been born in this room tonight”. He added: “Tonight, the people of Wakefield have spoken on behalf of the British people. They have said unreservedly -”Boris Johnson, your contempt for this country is no longer tolerated’. People in Wakefield and across the country are sick of the deceit and dishonesty of this government.”

So what does it all mean for Johnson, who is conveniently thousands of miles away this morning on a visit to Rwanda? Of course, all the usual caveats about byelections apply and there are specific ones attached to these two (the Devon contest was triggered by a similarly sleazy scandal as Neil Parish quit after he was caught watching porn on the Commons).

But the size of the swing away from the governing party in both suggests this is not business as usual and the problems facing Johnson are more than just mid-term blues, as he would put it. This was conceded by Dowden who decided to call it a day, just hours after the results came in.It is worth reading his resignation in full – particularly for what it doesn’t say as much as what it does state. Dowden does not specifically back Johnson to continue as he calls for “somebody to take responsibility” for the defeats.

A raft of MPs have come out this morning to back Dowden, saying he is not to blame for the party’s recent run of bad election results. The Big Dog remains defiant, however, and has vowed to “keep going”.

Responding to the result in Wakefield, Keir Starmer said: “Wakefield has shown the country has lost confidence in the Tories. This result is a clear judgement on a Conservative Party that has run out of energy and ideas. Britain deserves better.”

“Yesterday’s parliamentary by-elections are the latest in a run of very poor results for our party. Our supporters are distressed and disappointed by recent events, and I share their feelings. We cannot carry on with business as usual. Somebody must take responsibility and I have concluded that, in these circumstances, it would not be right for me to remain in office.”

Dowden’s resignation letter.

“Polling guru Sir John Curtice doing nothing to calm Tory jitters by pointing out the last real precedent for such a gruesome run of by-election defeats is the tail end of John Major’s govt.”

Daily Mail politics editor Jason Groves on results.

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