How Tucker Carlson could prove to be a thorn in the side of Fox after his ousting

Could Tucker Carlson’s departure damage the business of Fox News?

The right-wing cable news channel is a ratings juggernaut, a powerful voice in America’s national conversation and, crucially, a wildly successful commercial operation.

It has jettisoned anchors – and influential executives such as Roger Ailes – weathered storms and batted aside innumerable controversies and lawsuits. However, this one could be different.

Carlson’s departure knocked the share price of the Fox Corporation, Fox News’s parent company, far more even than the near $800m it is paying to Dominion Voting Systems to settle the defamation claim brought by the company.

The settlement saved Fox personalities (including Carlson) as well as the likes of Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch from having to take the stand. It also removed an uncertainty that had been hanging over the operation. Some of the payment will be written off as part of the cost of doing business, some may be covered by insurance and the Fox Corporation has plenty of cash in the bank to cover the rest.

There remains a second lawsuit Fox is fighting that could yet prove similarly expensive brought by Smartmatic, another voting machine company, which is seeking $2.7bn, an even bigger sum than the $1.6bn in Dominion’s claim. But a trial isn’t due until 2025. Smartmatic has promised further revelations from inside Fox. However, the worst of the damage might already have been done with the trove of correspondence the Dominion suit revealed, which has been feasted on by rival news organisations.

That includes comments that may have catalysed Carlson’s departure, which have yet to see the light of day but may yet do so.

Fox’s most recent annual report trumpets that “Fox News was the only cable news network to post viewership gains in the fiscal year in the key adults 25-54 demographic”.

Carlson was a big part of that. His was the highest-rated show within that bracket, with a notably younger viewership than other Fox anchors typically enjoy.

Much more than fellow primetime hosts like Sean Hannity or Laura Ingraham, he also has his finger on the pulse of the populist right.

Carlson notably embraced Trumpism, rather than Trump, tapping into and amplifying the fears of white America every bit as effectively as the former president did.

This led to him pushing some foul narratives such as the “great replacement”, a grimly racist conspiracy theory holding that American elites are importing compliant immigrants to neuter the power of native-born Americans. This led to National Public Radio asking if he had “created the most racist show in the history of cable news?”

But with a selective use of clips, you could also make him sound strikingly left wing. He has regularly railed against corporate interests. He likes to portray himself as a champion of civil liberties, and an opponent of wars. He has even critiqued low wages. This is not traditional Fox fare. But it is the sort of thing that animates Trump voters, whom Carlson has been able to tap into.

Now he has gone, could it damage Fox’s reputation among the populist part of conservative America? Enough to have a sustained impact on those ratings and, thus Fox’s business? Will Carlson’s fans - especially his younger fans - desert Fox and follow him wherever he turns up next?

Carlson’s most recent message on Twitter did not reference his firing. Instead it was a blast aimed at the media in which he railed against “how unbelievably stupid most of the debates you see on television are”.

“They’re completely irrelevant. They mean nothing. In five years we won’t even remember that we had them,” he thundered. He claimed that what he described as “the big topics” – emerging science, demographic change, corporate power, natural resources – got no time at all. He attacked both the two main American parties before signing off: “Where can you find Americans saying true things? There aren’t many places left. But there are some. And that’s enough… see you soon.”

The tweet has already been viewed 73 million times. As twisted as Carlson’s message may be, there is a potentially sizeable market for it and for him. He is seen as authentic by some of his following in a way that Fox might not be. Social media platforms such as Twitter have also diminished the power of traditional broadcasters and provided a direct route for people like Carlson to reach their acolytes.

Fox also faces competition from upstart rivals that wasn’t there when, say, Bill O’Reilly was let go. Newsmax, a smaller far-right rival, whose post-election ratings surge rocked the network and clearly played a role in its diving into the treacherous waters of election denial, has been quick to capitalise on Carlson’s firing. It has positioned it as a capitulation to the left by Fox News and the Murdoch family. Newsmask still lags far behind Fox in terms of viewership but has doubled, even tripled, its ratings in some time slots. The surge coincided with Carlson’s departure.

Fox News has weathered past storms. It has found new stars to replace old ones, new ways to drive the outrage machine. But Carlson could well prove to be a sharper thorn in its side than any of his dumped predecessors.

The “see you soon” at the end of his monologue could prove a chilling warning for Fox.