Is Trump really a terrible businessman? It’s more complicated than it looks

Ultimately, Mr Trump has been more successful playing a business mogul than being one in real life.”

That’s the killer line from the sweeping New York Times expose of President Trump’s tax affairs, which reveal that he paid just $750 in federal income tax in the year he won the presidency, and $750 in his first year of the job, while painting a picture of a business empire teetering on the brink.

But that first statement misses the point: playing business mogul is in itself a business for Donald Trump, and it is a remarkably successful one. Not only does it appear to have propped up the Trump Organisation’s struggling real estate businesses, it is ultimately what delivered the presidency into his hands.

The latter is in itself a formidable business asset. Just ask the previous occupants of 1,600 Pennsylvania Avenue. None of them have exactly gone hungry after leaving office. What differentiates Trump is, per the report, the use he’s made of it while in office.

The newspaper’s analysis also reveals that the US version of The Apprentice, along with licensing and endorsement deals that flowed from Trump’s celebrity, poured $427.4m into his coffers. With the lustre from TV starting to fade, he launched a quixotic bid for the US presidency to pump-prime the brand. It seemed risible until it wasn’t.

History will likely judge Trump as one of the worst presidents the US has had, if not the worst full stop. The 200,000 coronavirus deaths on his watch will be at the top of the charge sheets.

But while it may make you shudder, it is still a formable achievement of Trump’s to have been able to leverage his brand to deliver a job that only 44 other people have previously held in the history of the United States. Trump is, it should be noted, the only US president without any prior experience in public service and/or the military.

Trump Celebrity LLC is poised to benefit for years to come from the revenues this will generate.

The problem for Trump is not that he’s a much less successful businessman than he is at playing at one. It is that he’s a lot less successful as a real estate mogul than he is at playing at one.

The profits from his celebrity business have, along with some notably aggressive tax planning, and questionable write-offs, offset the losses made by the other part of his two-headed monster of a business.

But, as the New York Times identifies, a crunch is coming. The coronavirus is going to make an impact on even the profitable parts of his real estate empire, such as the New York-based Trump Tower, which has generated a handy profit but has since lost important tenants including Nike (another business built on a brand, just one with a lot less baggage and no need to prop up unprofitable property).

The US Internal Revenue Service, among others, is pouring over the books and asking awkward questions (“they treat me very badly”), at a time when Trump lenders also have cause for concern with $400m or so of borrowings identified as reaching term over the next four years.

Would those lenders really call in the loans of a sitting president? And how successful can any investigation of President Trump be in the face of a morally bankrupt party willing to back him come what may?

Not very, if the history of his first term is anything to go by. When The Donald said he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone” and still “not lose any voters” he wasn’t kidding. Right on cue, his shills were angrily decrying the Times article.

The current race could scarcely be any more important.

Even though the revelations of the president’s tax and financial affairs won’t shake the faith of his confirmed supporters – it may even strengthen it – the polls and the omens are not looking good for him.

But here’s the thing: let’s say it all hits the fan after an exit from the White House at the end of this year. You still shouldn’t bet against Trump Celebrity LLC.

Its chair, CEO and president retains a devoted following and will enjoy the status of a former president, who’ll doubtless claim he was unfairly kicked out, plus, crucially, a proven record as a ratings winner.

This PT Barnum president is a showman par excellence. Trump Celebrity LLC is poised to rise from the ashes of his political office (if it ends), the real estate “empire” (if it crashes), even from the tax investigations (if they draw blood). More the’s pity for America.