Can Rishi Sunak retain his superstar status as his flagship policies come to an end?

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s Rishiman, the pandemic-battered Tory government’s solo superhero.

Basic competence, which he possesses, shouldn’t be a seen as superpower, but in this administration it is.

Rishi Sunak is the star of a cabinet chosen by a prime minister whose weakness and insecurity causes him to value blind loyalty above ability. Sunak has shown that loyalty, but he has also demonstrated a degree of operational and political talent that makes him a rare beast indeed.

The question is whether it will that be enough to carry him through what’s set to be a bitterly cold autumn, and I’m not here talking about the weather.

The chancellor’s popularity really took off during the pandemic by doing some very un-Tory like things, mostly involving taking out the national cheque book and aiming it at areas of greatest need.

But he’s put it back in his pocket, at least for now. Sunak’s flagship policy, the Job Retention Scheme, has been a major success. It kept millions of people in work, and many of their employers in business, when the lockdown forced the shuttering of whole sectors.

Now the economy is opening up, the scheme is getting less generous. Previously it paid 80 per cent of furloughed employees wages up to £2,500. That’s just fallen to 70 per cent, with employers, who were already paying pension contributions, national insurance etc, topping up the remainder.

It falls by another 10 per cent in October, before being replaced by a “job retention bonus” payable in January that some big employers have said they won’t take. How many jobs will that protect? Probably not very many.

The end of October has the look of a cliff edge, one that will be particularly steep for those sectors that were first to close and will be last to open; live music venues, theatres and the like.

Mass layoffs are already underway. They’ve been a grim feature of business news for several months now. They’re set to accelerate.

Then there’s the end of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, offering a state funded discount on food and non alcoholic drinks in the early part of the week. This caught me by surprise, proving itself to be another Sunak success. It showed off the benefits of incentivising people. The tables of participating outlets were filled with diners.

Some outlets, chains in particular, are planning to try and keep it going for another month. Some landlords are, very commendably, are helping with that by offering discounts of their own to eateries that participate.

But the problem the hospitality sector faces is that there is still a significant number of people who remain very wary about leaving their homes. In the absence of the scheme, restaurants, pubs and cafes, face some cold months ahead. The stories about Britain’s ready supply of “covidiots”, protesting masks and behaving like fools, will do nothing to dissuade nervy customers from staying home.

The fall out from from end of policies like the two I’ve highlighted will inevitably dim Sunak’s star. But by how much?

That’s where it gets interesting. Sunak has said he’ll do what it takes to support the economy. The chances are he’ll have to put his hand back into his pocket before long and if he does, if he proves sufficiently fleet of foot, he could retain much of his reputation.

He’s ruled out extending the furlough scheme, which may be his first really bad decision, but he may yet have other cards to play. As for the tax rises he’s rumoured to be contemplating – reports have suggested pension tax relief, corporation tax, and CGT are on the block – to pay for it all? They might discomfit some Tory MPs, but I suspect the public will be more sanguine.

Working in his favour is that the electorate knows the pandemic is going to make for some tough months. It may be inclined to give him an unusual degree of leeway even though a government that has presided over thousands of needless deaths has already had more than it deserves.

Sunak will be given a lot of rope. He would be wise to use some of it to tackle the looming jobs crisis.

But it isn’t infinite and he may have to mothball his cape and the blue and red suit with the shiny S on it for a while.

Working in his favour is the fact that the majority of his colleagues are dim lights indeed, and it starts with his boss in No 10. He mightn’t have to do much to carry on looking good even with the economic blowback that’s coming.