As furlough ends, Rishi Sunak takes the shine off an achievement none of his colleagues can match

The Tory government has had a dismal few weeks, with fuel shortages and the ongoing supply chain crisis dominating the headlines.

Today it is calling time on what remains a largely unalloyed success as the party faithful prepare to gather for their annual conference.

The Job Retention Scheme, which protected millions of people from a swift trip to their local Jobcentre Plus through the course of the pandemic, is breathing its last.

A rare example of the government calling in and heeding outside counsel, the initiative, popularly known as the furlough scheme, was designed with the help of the TUC and the CBI with impressive speed.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak will now argue that it has served its purpose. Job well done.

Against a backdrop of labour shortages in occupations ranging from lorry drivers (the cause of the fuel crisis) to chefs to food processing workers, there are many who would agree with him.

Some of the numbers do Sunak great credit. According to the Resolution Foundation, the scheme supported 11.6 million employees in total and subsidised 2.3 billion working days.

At the pandemic peak, during which the UK economy experienced its sharpest contraction in 300 years, it played a key role in limiting unemployment to a relatively bearable 5.2 per cent.

While there was too much unnecessary dithering in the run-up to its extension, Sunak’s eventual decision to let it continue through much of this year was another important step as the crisis dragged on, despite the scheme’s high cost. At £70bn, it is broadly equivalent to the schools budget for 18 months.

Such an outlay, as an emergency measure in the midst of an unprecedented shock, is far more palatable than nationalising the banks, which is what happened during the prior economic maelstrom that Britain found itself caught up in.

In comparison, bailing out just RBS, now NatWest, and Lloyds cost just over £65bn. It’s true that a chunk of that was recouped, but in terms of economic damage averted, a good chunk of the expenditure on the furlough scheme should ultimately be recouped too.

Sunak should nonetheless beware of patting himself on the back with too much enthusiasm when he delivers his speech to an adoring Tory crowd because while some of the million workers estimated by Resolution to be left on the scheme will now go back to their old jobs, plenty won’t.

Around seven in 10 of the businesses with staff still on furlough are expected to make redundancies. Hundreds of thousands of people could suddenly find themselves seeking pastures new. And they can’t all simply jump into an HGV cab to replace their lost incomes.

Older workers in particular are in for some hard times, especially with the scheme’s closure coinciding with the planned £20 cut to universal credit.

Some sectors, such as travel, arts and entertainment, are still struggling and there is a compelling case for offering them continued support to ease the plight of their workers and help them get back on their feet.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Christine Jardine said extending the scheme for another six months for the 10 sectors most reliant on it would cost £600m in total, a relatively light outlay that she compared favourably to the cost of Sunak’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme, which assisted with the pandemic’s autumn resurgence.

TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady, meanwhile, called for a short time working scheme along the lines of some of those adopted on the continent.

Sunak has so far been unmoved, sitting back while others invest, steering Britain into potentially stormy waters while they build shelters and look at Brexit island with bemusement.

After investing to win the jobs war, the chancellor seems determined to take at least some of the shine off an achievement none of his colleagues can hold a candle to. We’re not yet at peace, and his boldness seems to have deserted him. Pity.