Black Friday may run hot this year but there are tough times ahead for retailers

Black Friday used to be a case of damned if you do, even more damned if you don’t, as the profit warnings of those who have previously decided to shun the event attest to.

They have, however, mostly found a way around the problem of having to shift stock at lower prices than they’d like. The bargains consumers battle for – sometimes literally – aren’t all they might seem.

When Which? looked at 201 of last year’s “deals” at six major retailers – Amazon, AO, Argos, Currys, John Lewis and Richer Sounds – it found nine out of 10 of the goods covered were available at the same price or cheaper in the six months prior to the event.

Consumers could often get them cheaper afterwards as well.

Do your research, look before you leap, don’t feel pressured, the consumer group urged. Sound advice. But it probably won’t be heeded. To the contrary.

This year’s consume-a-thon may very well run hot.

For a start, people seem to be getting the message when it comes to the supply chain crisis. It puts a priority on shopping early for Christmas. Black Friday week is poised to be the beneficiary. Before too long it’ll be pushed into October, just as Christmas has been pushed into November.

Some of the money that the more fortunate households were able to save during lockdown may also still be available to boost retailers’ returns and cheer up their shareholders.

The bricks-and-mortar part of the sector – left on its knees by lockdown – can justifiably hope for some real revenue-led relief.

From here on out, however, the sector’s prospects look murky, even if Britain manages to avoid another raft of pandemic-related restrictions, which the government is currently resisting.

Napoleon allegedly called Britain a “nation of shopkeepers”. It is much better described as a nation of shoppers.

The UK consumer’s love of retail therapy has, in fact, bailed out the economy on more than one occasion, propping up the reputations of politicians in charge of it in the process.

An economist of my acquaintance, who spent some time in the civil service, once complained that Britain consumes too much, makes too little. He was not wrong. Nor was he alone.

The Black Friday press releases, the running numbers Barclaycard puts out, the pictures of people fighting for flatscreens that journalists will tut-tut about while their gleeful editors quietly cheer in the background – if they appear this year – will only serve to underline that point.

This year, may, however be the last big blow-out. Inflation is already eating into household budgets. Pay rises are not, with a few notable exceptions, keeping up with the rising price of essentials; energy in particular, but food prices are also ticking up.

Boris Johnson’s rises are on the horizon too.

The sector is facing a year of falling real incomes. This may curb even the enthusiasm of the bargain-hunting British shopper in the months ahead, and certainly when next year’s event arrives.

If nothing else, that would be a result for the environment. Planet Earth, and its non human flora and fauna, is expected to take one for the team on these occasions.

As for retailers, they might may actually find themselves in the uncomfortable position of having to put together offers that count for something. Deals worthy of the name. And even that may not work for them.