Inside Politics: Brexit trade war ‘inevitable’, Starmer brands Tories ‘party of crime and disorder’

Did you have trouble getting items from the shops yesterday? Pictures of empty shelves are plastered all over most of this morning’s papers, amid more warnings from the food industry that the UK’s “pingdemic” could cause major disruption to supplies. There may be more bad news for businesses further down the line after the EU rejected Lord Frost’s calls to re-write the Northern Ireland protocol, sparking fears of a full blown trade war. Elsewhere, Keir Starmer wants to crack down on crime and today launches a campaign for safer communities. NHS staff have been offered a 3 per cent pay rise.

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Senior Treasury and business department officials appear before the Public Accounts Committee to answer questions on Greensill and Covid finance schemes.

Coming up shortly:

-Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng on BBC Radio Today at 8.10am

-Shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds on LBC at 8.50am

BREXIT IMPASSE: Lord Frost is huffing and puffing but so far the EU house is not blowing in. Speaking in parliament, the Brexit minister demanded a “stand still” period to freeze the Northern Ireland protocol. He called for a fundamental re-writing of the new trading arrangements he and Boris Johnson negotiated and sold as the solution to the border issue. “We cannot go on as we are,” he told the House of Lords. But the EU response was swift, uncompromising and entirely predictable: Commission vice president Maroš Šefčovič ruled out any re-negotiation of the deal, although he said the bloc is willing to “seek creative solutions within the framework of the protocol.” So where do yesterday’s developments leave us? Having already come back to the table once, the EU position is unlikely to change and the UK still has the option of triggering Article 16, which would suspend parts of the Brexit deal – a move Lord Frost says is justifiable.

TRADE CHAOS: Some in the EU are warning the most likely outcome is a trade war if the UK refuses to back down on its insistence that the protocol must be torn up. One senior EU official, who said there is “zero chance” that Lord Frost’s demands will be met, told The Independent: “We are running short of ways to engage in a productive way, while we remain willing to do so. This paper is unhelpful, unrealistic, and a poor use of time. We will not hesitate to pursue further legal actions if the UK fails to adhere to its international legal obligations.” The source added that this could include retaliatory tariffs impacting all UK exporters to the EU. Such a step could result in tit-for-tat tariffs, key ingredients for a full-blown trade dispute. One Irish diplomat warned: “If the UK seriously tries to avoid the governance structures in the protocol, a trade row will be all but inevitable. But we obviously hope that won’t be the case.”

SHOP-PING SHORTAGES:Empty shelves have been spotted in supermarkets from London to Manchester in the latest sign that the UK’s “pingdemic” could tip some industries over the edge. A rise in the number of food supply workers being forced to self-isolate because of the NHS Covid app is being blamed for shortages. Iceland, Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Waitrose all said they were facing problems. The British Retail Consortium is calling on ministers to change self-isolation rules for workers in food production jobs. “Government needs to act fast. Retail workers and suppliers, who have played a vital role throughout this pandemic, should be allowed to work provided they are double vaccinated or can show a negative Covid test, to ensure there is no disruption to the public’s ability to get food and other goods,” said the BRC’s Andrew Opie. “With community cases soaring, the number of healthy retail staff having to self-isolate is rising fast, disrupting retail operations.” The government says it is working with the sector to find solutions. The story appears on the front page of most of this morning’s papers, with the best headline award going to the Metro, which goes with: “Shelf-isolation.”

PAY ROW: NHS staff have been offered a 3 per cent rise, which is an improvement on the initial offer of 1 per cent, but frontline workers say it is still not enough. The Royal College of Nurses says the deal amounts to a pay cut when inflation has been factored in and is consulting its members on potential industrial action. The Department of Health said the rise will be worth an additional £1,000 a year to the average nurse in England, while many porters and cleaners will receive around £540. But while it is higher than the current rate of inflation, the RCN — which had demanded 12.5 per cent — said it would soon fall behind the expected increase in prices over the coming months, leaving nurses worse-off overall. RCN interim general secretary and chief executive Pat Cullen said: “Nursing staff will remain dignified in responding to what will be a bitter blow to many. “But the profession will not take this lying down. We will be consulting our members on what action they would like to take next.”

CRIME CRACKDOWN: In an exclusive article for The Independent, Keir Starmer has branded the Conservatives the party “of crime and disorder” and today sets out plans on policing. The Labour leader is launching a campaign for safer communities after party analysis revealed police budgets are £1.6 billion down on their level when Boris Johnson’s party came to power in 2010. Elsewhere, the party has said it may not back Covid vaccine passports, setting up a tough vote for the government. A group of about 40 Tory MPs are believed to be ready to rebel against the plan to make full vaccination a requirement of entry into nightclubs and other large, crowded venues from the end of September.

STANDARDS BREACH: A Commons watchdog has found five Conservative MPs breached the code of conduct and attempted to “improperly” influence legal proceedings related to their disgraced former colleague Charlie Elphicke. Elphicke, the former Tory MP for Dover, was jailed for two years in 2020 for sexually assaulting two women. Natalie Elphicke, Sir Roger Gale, Adam Holloway, Bob Stewart and Theresa Villiers were all accused of seeking special treatment for Mr Elphicke after writing to senior judges using Commons stationery.

“We will not agree to a renegotiation of the protocol.”

European Commission vice president Maros Sefcovic responds to the UK’s call to change post-Brexit trading arrangements.

“The endgame hard to read. UK have option of invoking Article 16 if no agreement. EU already has legal process underway & has to decide on next steps. Cld agree ‘standstill’ & give showdown past Sept 30 deadline. Neither side want trade war, but cld spiral towards that in autumn.”

Sky News political editor Beth Rigby on future UK-EU relations.

“WHAT THERE IS MONEY FOR: £37bn on failed Test & Trace.£16bn on bombs & guns. £billions to pals for dodgy PPE etc. £220bn+ on Brexit. £7k an hour for consultants. £200m for a big boat.

WHAT THERE ISN’T MONEY FOR:

A proper pay rise for NHS staff.”

Actor and writer David Schneider criticises the government’s offer of a 3 per cent pay rise to NHS staff.