Brexit is far from being done – the hard work begins now

Even with his impressive parliamentary majority and his apparently boundless optimism, Boris Johnson should know better than to set an end date of 31 December 2020 for the UK’s transition out of the European Union into law ­– the latest twist in the Brexit saga.

All experience tells us that trying to set artificial deadlines on Brexit is neither practical nor wise. In this case it risks no-deal Brexit – an outcome just as depressing and dangerous to the wellbeing of the nation as it was when it hovered into view before the previous Brexit departure dates in March, June and October.

Of course, Mr Johnson is gambling that this time will be different, or, in his own terms, he will enjoy a repeat of his supposed negotiating triumph that brought forth the famous “oven ready” deal. Except, of course, that this “new” oven ready deal is nothing of the sort. Rather it was the very one cooked up by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, and served to Theresa May, then prime minister in 2018 – and was roundly condemned by Mr Johnson for dividing Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

Perhaps the EU will be intimidated by this legislative display of British firmness. Perhaps they will accede to British demands to have cake and eat it – offering unfettered access to the single market without any requirement for the UK to abide by the EU’s high standards on workers’ rights, environmental targets, consumer protections and many other areas. The EU, in an ideal world for the UK, would allow the British to diverge from EU rules as much as they wish, and then easily gain an unfair competitive advantage over firms operating under EU law. Mr Johnson has already made ominous noises about divergence on workers’ rights and environmental standards; he and his ministers are perfectly capable of falsely arguing that British rules are superior to those across the English Channel.

But perhaps not. Chancellor Angela Merkel has already publicly warned that the UK is trying to set up shop as a competitor on the EU’s very doorstep, and expressed some disquiet about it. No European leader can allow the British to have full access to EU markets, while simultaneously undercutting them. “Social dumping”, as it is termed, is not something the EU is ready to accept from the UK, and sooner or later Mr Johnson must come to realise that the freedoms of Brexit, such as they are, come at a price.

That moment of realisation will arrive in the early spring, when both sides meet to begin the talks in earnest, after the completion of the Brexit bill, which has now had its second reading in the Commons.

The EU will hand its negotiators a mandate that will be positive – aiming for as smooth and tariff-free a future as it is possible to achieve – but there will be little tolerance for any UK effort to slide away from its obligations to adhere to EU rules both now and in the future.

A bland assurance from the British that their laws will amount to “equivalence” will not necessarily be accepted. Nor will the EU wish to repeat the agreement with Switzerland, which enjoys membership of the single market (but not the EU) in certain economic sectors but not others. The near-constant negotiations and adjustment of rules and laws is deeply unsatisfactory to the EU. The UK would be an even bigger muddle.

So, given such fundamental differences, it will soon become clear whether no-deal Brexit can be avoided, though the final reckoning will probably only arrive next winter as the deadline looms.

Brexit, in other words, will not be “done” this year, it will not be done next year, and it may not be done until the British concede to a far closer relationship with the EU – greater convergence – than has hitherto been envisaged. It will also make a new trade deal with the United States, and nations such as China and India for that matter, more complicated.

Far from being an international beacon for free trade, the UK may end up having only the most minimal of access to its major markets in Europe, but with no correspondingly greater trade with the US and others. Britain may end up with less cake than it started with. In any case, Brexit is very far from “done”.