Inside Politics | Boris Johnson’s lead narrows ahead of campaign’s last day

As the rain lashes and wind howls, apocalyptic portents abound on the final day of the election campaign. The ice in Greenland is melting much faster than thought, the US president is getting charged with high crimes and misdemeanours, and North Korea’s dictator has been riding a white horse up a sacred mountain. I’m sure all this in the Book of Revelation somewhere. Speaking of doom-laden prophesies, Boris Johnson is on course for a majority of 28 seats in parliament, according to a major, pre-poll projection. But soothsayers be damned! There’s still a full day of campaigning left to win over hearts, minds and bodies willing to traipse to the polling station despite the miserable weather. I’m Adam Forrest, and welcome to The Independent’s daily Inside Politics briefing.

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for on the campaign trail today:

The final day will see Boris Johnson begin on the attack in Labour’s Yorkshire heartland and end it canvassing in Essex with his “get Brexit done” message. In contrast, Jeremy Corbyn will be in defensive mode in Middlesbrough, Rother Valley in South Yorkshire and Ashfield in Nottinghamshire. He will also visit Labour-held Bedford, before a final eve-of-poll rally in London – telling the electorate to “vote for hope”. Jo Swinson and her deputy Ed Davey will hold rallies in Esher and Walton, Guildford and Wimbledon, all Tory-held targets. They will be hoping to find the Lib Dems doing much better here than the nationwide polls suggest.

LAP OF THE GEEKS: Tory campaign warnings about the threat of Jeremy Corbyn at No 10 have felt like kidology at times, a trick against complacency. But the new MRP poll by the number crunchers at YouGov will have the sirens going off in CCHQ. The narrow, 28-seat majority now predicted is down from a comfortable 68-seat majority forecast by the same survey only two weeks ago. And the latest poll shows the Tory lead cut by two points. “Based on the model we cannot rule out a hung parliament,” said YouGov’s Anthony Wells. Boris Johnson said the general election was “in the lap of the gods” and admitted he was “genuinely worried” about tactical voting. What does it mean for the Conservatives’ “big beasts”? Foreign secretary Dominic Raab has an advantage of less than two points, while Iain Duncan Smith is only three points ahead. Looks like it’s worth staying up on election night after all.

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS: So what sort of things could sway a switcher at this stage? Johnson might hope smashing a JCB vehicle through a fake, polystyrene wall might leave voters with a sense of his zestful manliness. But a Sky News interview with the father of London Bridge attack victim Jack Merritt left the PM looking like a sneaky coward. David Merritt said neither Johnson nor anyone at No 10 called to offer condolences, accusing the PM of using the tragedy as an “opportunity” to “score points” over sentencing. Meanwhile, the shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth was forced to admit he had been a “plonker” after negative comments he made to a Tory pal about Corbyn and Labour’s chances of winning were leaked. Ashworth said it was merely “banter,” then used the b-word over and over and over again as if that would make it all magically go away. Corbyn said he was “cool” with it. A Labour politician doesn’t think Corbyn’s very good – will that really come as a shock to anyone?

USE YOUR DELUSIONS: The YouGov MRP poll brings Jo Swinson a tiny boost: the Lib Dems are set to take 15 seats, rather than the 13 forecast a couple of weeks ago. She appealed to voters to think about whether Britain should be “open or closed” and challenged them to decide whether they wanted to “pull up the drawbridge”. Nigel Farage thought the drawbridge puller-uppers would vote for him in their droves, but YouGov predicts no seats for the Brexit Party – leaving Farage more of a dirty rascal than king of the castle. As usual Nigel is scheming about what happens next. One Brexit Party insider told The Telegraph some in his team are “deluding” themselves by imagining a hung parliament will lead to another election in spring when they can “restate the case for a clean Brexit”.

LATER, HATERS: Has this election got nastier the longer it’s gone on? Yes, it has. A study by the University of Sheffield found the abuse of candidates on Twitter has escalated during the campaign. The Tories suffering the biggest rise in hateful tweets, so it’s slightly surprising to find Corbyn the single most maligned politician on the hell site. Who else is in the top five you ask? You really want to know? Sickos. Okay: Johnson is the second most abused, followed by Matt Hancock, Michael Gove and David Lammy. Corbyn was in positively good form at his latest rally in Carlisle – he even had a rather good impromptu joke at the expense of another hated figure. When his speech was briefly interrupted by barking, Corbyn asked: “Is the dog OK? ... Please nobody mention Iain Duncan Smith again, it upsets the dog.”

STUCK IN A MOMENT: You may have thought candidate scandals were over, given we’re in the final hours of the campaign. But not quite. Richard Drax, the Conservative flag-bearer in South Dorset, was caught parking his green Land Rover (could he be any more of Tory?) across two disabled spaces. Dicky boy, whose full surname is Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax (I mean seriously guys – could he be any more of a Tory?) told the Bournemouth Echo it was “a moment of thoughtlessness”. The Conservatives are also dealing with a complaint made by Labour candidate Naz Shah that Tory candidate Linden Kemkaran shared Islamophobic material on Twitter. Kemkaran allegedly re-tweeted a post calling Islam a “nasty culture”.

“There’s clearly banter in my voice. I look like an idiot as a result of doing it ... I apologise to Labour Party members.”

Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth explains his leaked comments to a now former friend.

“Boris Johnson is nine points ahead of Labour in his seat. The combined Lib Dem/Green vote is ... nine points.”

The New Statesman’s George Eaton suggests tactical voting could still unseat the PM...

“Green and Lib Dem voters in Uxbridge have a chance to make history and unseat Boris Johnson – but only if they lend their votes to Labour.”

...while leading Corbynista Ash Sarkar urges Lib Dems and Greens to get it done.

Vince Cable, The Independent: I helped negotiate a trade deal with the US – I know they will demand an NHS sell off

Matthew Norman, The Independent: Jonathan Ashworth’s leaked conversation provided the perfect ending to this abattoir detritus-filled election

Zoe Williams, The Guardian: The Tories have underestimated young voters’ anger. That could be costly

Fred Kaplan, Slated: The Democrats’ Ukraine-only impeachment looks half-hearted