Inside Politics: Big Dog’s future ignites Tory civil war

Boris Johnson faces the most perilous weekend of his premiership since the last most perilous weekend of his premiership last weekend. With No 10 facing accusations by rebel MPs trying to organise a no confidence vote that government whips have been “blackmailing” them to back the Big Dog — and the emergence of an email showing aides were in fact warned about the Downing Street lockdown garden party — it doesn’t seem like an exaggeration to say the government is now in full-on crisis mode (as if it wasn’t before). Rebel MPs now have a weekend to regroup before coming back to Westminster to plot their next move, with Sue Gray’s partygate investigation expected to be published in the first half of the week. But regardless of what that investigation concludes, and with Johnson refusing to resign, it appears that the Tory Party is now locked in a civil war between the PM’s loyalists and those who want him out of the door. It has now been a full 51 days since the first report of a lockdown-busting gathering emerged and it seems there is no end in sight to the partygate scandal.

Commons proceedings get underway at 9.30am with a day of private members’ bill. First up is Tory MP Peter Gibson’s Taxis and Private Hire Vehicles (Safeguarding and Road Safety) Bill. Later, Labour’s Fleur Anderson has an adjournment debate on the impact of unsafe cladding in her Putney constituency.

Coming up:

– Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng BBC Radio 4 Today at 8.10am

– Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford on Times Radio at 10.00am

PARTY PROBE EMAIL: There was a big update in the partygate investigation yesterday after Sue Gray, the senior civil servant leading the probe, reportedly obtained an email warning the PM’s principal private secretary against holding the now infamous Downing Street lockdown garden party. According to ITV News’s Robert Peston, the message told Martin Reynolds the gathering “should be cancelled because it broke the rules”.

SMOKING GUN?: The full contents of the bombshell email are not available, and it is not yet clear who might have viewed it when it was sent, but it goes some way to corroborating Dominic Cummings’s account that evidence would emerge showing that concerns had indeed been raised about the bash. Whether or not it will constitute evidence that Johnson was aware of warnings and therefore lied to parliament, as Cummings claims, remains to be seen, but it certainly raises more serious questions about the PM’s version of events, which is not quite cutting it with the public. In a tweet after the story broke, Cummings, who is actively trying to remove the PM from office, said the email vindicated his version of events and claimed that “lying” is No 10’s “default mode as regime implodes.” Multiple reports in the past few days say, the latest coming late last night, say the mood in government over the conclusion of Gray’s investigation is becoming increasingly dark.

BLUE ON BLUE: Tory infighting over the future of Big Dog exploded into the open yesterday as MPs plotting to topple the PM accused whips of “blackmailing” them to vote with the government. William Wragg, a senior Tory MP, chair of the public administration committee — and one of those calling for Johnson to resign over the partygate scandal — was first out of the blocks to make the incendiary claims, saying that some of his colleagues had been threatened with funding cuts if they didn’t vote in certain way. Just a few hours later Christian Wakeford, who defected to the Labour Party on Wednesday, stepped forward to tell the BBC that whips had threatened to axe funding for a school in his constituency if he did not support the government on voting against free school meals.

DIRTY TRICKS: Other Tories say these sorts of dirty tricks tactics are being actively used by Johnson loyalists to intimidate rebels against organising a no confidence vote in the PM. Andrew Bridgen told The Independent that he believed a critical story about him which appeared days after he submitted a confidence letter was intended to deter colleagues from following his example. No 10 said there was “no evidence” to support blackmail claims. So naturally enough, the rebels have sensationally told The Times they will publish secret recordings and private messages to substantiate their claims, in a story that splashes the paper.

RUSSIA THREAT: Britain and the United States have warned Vladimir Putin to “desist and step back” from war in Ukraine or risk being dragged into a prolonged conflict. In a message to the Russian president, foreign secretary Liz Truss says Russia could be dragged into a quagmire similar to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Her comments came amid a buildup of Russian forces near the border with Ukraine, which prompted President Joe Biden to warn Putin would pay a “dear price” for any invasion. Biden on Thursday said he had been “absolutely clear” with Putin that moving troops across Ukraine’s border would constitute an invasion, while the PM said that an incursion would “be a disaster for not just for Russia, it would be a disaster for the world”. Johnson added that “the UK stands squarely behind the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine”.

“We are not aware of any evidence to support what are clearly serious allegations. If there is any evidence to support these claims we would look at it very carefully.”

No 10 spokesperson on blackmail claims.

“Even if Sue Gray’s findings went entirely in his favour (and few in No 10 are expecting that) there are problems Boris Johnson may not be able to fix.”

Sky News deputy politics editor Sam Coates on PM’s future.

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