Inside Politics: Red wall Tories plot to put Big Dog down

After days of lying low in the kennel, the Big Dog was back out on the airwaves yesterday to defend himself against the partygate scandal. But there was little bark from Boris Johnson as he appeared on Sky News, tail between his legs, to deny claims by Dominic Cummings that he lied to parliament about the May 2020 garden bash. Denials and apologies by the PM, who looked very much a shadow of his former self, did little to convince many Tory MPs that he is still their master and the man to lead them forward. There is particular disquiet among the 2019 intake, many of them red wallers, who met to discuss his future, sparking speculation that a no confidence vote could be triggered within days. Away from partygate, which continues to dominate the papers and news websites, the PM is expected to announce an easing of Covid restrictions when he makes a statement to the Commons later. Matt Hancock has popped up in a somewhat unlikely setting.

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for:

No shortage of ammunition for Keir Starmer at prime minister’s questions after the latest “Dom bombs” provided by Dominic Cummings on “partygate.” I can exclusively reveal that Boris Johnson will tell Starmer to “wait for Sue Gray’s inquiry to report.”Then Johnson will try to change the music by making a Commons statement on whether Plan B restrictions will be lifted in England on 26 January, following a special Cabinet session this morning.Good news department: Steve Barclay, chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, will launch an action plan for military veterans.Bad news department: Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, will be quizzed by the Treasury select committee on inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

Coming up:

– Shadow BEIS secretary Jonathan Reynolds on Sky News Breakfast at 8.05am

– Armed forces minister James Heappey on BBC Radio 4 Today at 8.30am

JUST IN: Britain’s rate of inflation has rocketed to its highest level for nearly 30 years as the cost-of-living squeeze intensified, according to official figures. The Office for National Statistics said Consumer Prices Index inflation jumped from 5.1 per cent in November to 5.4 per cent in December - the highest since March 1992, when it stood at 7.1 per cent. Most economists had expected inflation of 5.2 per cent in December. Responding to the rise in CPI inflation, chancellor Rishi Sunak said: “I understand the pressures people are facing with the cost of living and we will continue to listen to people’s concerns as we have done throughout the pandemic.” The government has not yet announced any measures to help families hit with rising energy costs.

‘NOBODY TOLD ME’: In a pool clip for broadcasters, Johnson denied Cummings’s claim that he lied to parliament. He said “categorically that nobody told me” the garden party “was against the rules”, which is not quite the same as saying he was never made aware of the gathering or that it was inadvisable. Nevertheless, did the man in charge of making the rules really need a warning about what was acceptable and what was not? It is now Johnson’s words against those of Cummings and both men have a reputation for being economical with the truth. Cummings, whose Barnard Castle Covid eyesight test story was believed by absolutely nobody, has in the past claimed to have had damaging evidence on the government but later failed to produce it. Johnson and Conor Burns, the Northern Ireland minister sent out to bat for the PM later in the day, both declined the opportunity to say that Cummings was lying and deferred to the Sue Gray investigation into Downing Street parties, expected to conclude next week. Despite the PM’s denials, an exclusive poll for The Independent found that almost two-thirds of voters (65 per cent) and more than half (54 per cent) of Conservative supporters do not believe his claim that he thought the 20 May 2020 drinks in the Downing Street garden was a “work event”.

PORK PIE PLOT: Johnson faces another unmissable showdown with Keir Starmer at PMQs later (follow all the action here) but the Labour leader is the least of his worries today as he faces a chorus of mutinous MPs openly calling for his head. In a gathering that has been branded the “pork pie plot”, it is said some 20 MPs elected to red wall seats in northern England at the last general election, defending wafer thin majorities, met yesterday to discuss their concerns about embattled Johnson’s leadership. “No matter what Sue Gray decides, I think the voters have already decided,” said one MP who indicated they would not wait for findings of the Downing Street party probe before acting to end Johnson’s premiership.

RED WALL ANGER: Bury South’s Tory MP Christian Wakeford revealed he has submitted a letter of no-confidence to the PM, telling Yahoo News there were other MPs who “have written the letters but haven’t sent them in yet”. Another member of the 2019 intake, Mark Logan of Bolton North East – who was not at the meeting and has not submitted a letter – told The Independent: “My constituents and myself are unconvinced, and the prime minister really does have to dig deep and show he is prepared to change the culture at the top. “I don’t really care about Sue Gray’s report, It’s not about waiting for a report, it’s about someone being willing to change personally, not just change personnel.” One unnamed red waller told The Daily Telegraph that the 15 per cent of letters needed to trigger a leadership challenge could be reached by the end of today.

COVID UPDATE: Johnson is expected to lift England’s Covid plan B measures after his Cabinet on Wednesday morning to review restrictions. The prime minister is due to make an announcement to parliament afternoon, with mask-wearing and home-working guidance set to be scrapped. Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting, Sajid Javid told MPs he was “cautiously optimistic” that regulations could be “substantially reduced” and that the peak of the Omicron wave had passed.

HANCOCK DIP: Some light-hearted news to finish. Conservative MP Matt Hancock “definitely broke the rules” with an impromptu swim in London’s Serpentine, a member of the lake’s swimming club has told The Independent. The former health secretary was photographed enjoying an icy plunge early on Tuesday morning after a run with Tory colleagues Robert Buckland MP and Lord Bethell. However, the Serpentine Swimmers’ Club made clear that swimming is “strictly for members only” and “no guests [are] permitted” in a tweet referencing Mr Hancock’s dip.

“I’m saying categorically that nobody told me, nobody said this was something that was against the rules, doing something that wasn’t a work event because frankly, I can’t imagine why it would have gone ahead, or it would have been allowed to go ahead if it was against the rules.”

PM refutes Cummings claim he knew garden party was against the rules.

“There is a lot of VERY frenzied chatter tonight about what may or may not happen tomorrow - As things stand, conventional wisdom still that most Tory MPs are likely to wait for Gray report before making any decision about Johnson’s future. But it’s v febrile and things could move faster after all.”

BBC politics editor Laura Kuenssberg hears MPs won’t move against Johnson yet.

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