Inside Politics: Running out of oil

They think it’s all over. It nearly is: the Wagatha Christie trial has finished and we now wait for a verdict on a battle that has gripped the nation for days. The Met Police has reached its own conclusion on the Partygate scandal – issuing a total of 126 fines but no more for Boris Johnson. It looks like it’s not over for the prime minister.

Parliament is not sitting.

Has the greased piglet once again escaped a trip to the market?

The Met Police confirmed yesterday that it had concluded its investigation into the Partygate scandal, issuing a total of 126 fixed penalty notices for Covid law-breaking in Downing Street and Whitehall during the Covid pandemic.

Somewhat strangely, many people are arguing, is that Boris Johnson did not receive any more fines on top of the one he got for being “ambushed” by a cake on his birthday (which, on the face of it, seemed like one of the more innocuous gatherings) – despite reportedly attending five other events.

The outcome of the investigation has raised several questions about how Scotland Yard conducted its business, particularly given that some Downing Street staff, said to be furious, were fined for attending some of those said events.

Johnson has just one more hurdle to clear now in the form of Sue Gray’s report. The senior civil servant, given the moniker “Sue Gray area” by journalists at the height of the scandal, is said to be digesting the Met’s findings before publishing her own report next week.

There was no fresh wave of Tory MPs calling for Johnson to resign yesterday. And it remains to be seen whether or not they will come after the Gray probe, which reports say is being frustrated by the secrecy of the Met, which is refusing to publish its evidence.

Ultimately, it is Tory MPs who will decide Johnson’s fate and some of those most vocal in calling for him to step aside over the scandal now appear to be suggesting he is out of the woods, regardless of what the Gray report says. “I was wrong,” Sir Charles Walker told Newsnight last night. “The prime minister is going to continue in No 10 now.”

It has become increasingly clear too in recent weeks that there is no consensus among Tory MPs about who would replace Johnson if he were to be deposed, following the demise of Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, long seen as the heir to the throne. Sunak’s stock won’t have been done any favours with the news today that he has become the first frontline politician to make The Sunday Times rich list.

Added to this is the fact that Keir Starmer is still under investigation for ‘Beergate’, which has effectively neutered his attacks on Partygate. It looks like the greased piglet is safe for now. But the cost of living crisis and rising inflation mean he is running increasingly low on oil.

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There is still no breakthrough in the impasse over Brexit’s Northern Ireland protocol and Washington last night again waded into the row, with Nancy Pelosi, the powerful Democrat and House speaker, warning that there will be no US-UK trade deal if London follows through with its threats to unilaterally override the post-Brexit trading arrangements.

“It is deeply concerning that the UK is now seeking to unilaterally discard the Northern Ireland protocol,” Pelosi said in a statement issued on Thursday. “Negotiated agreements like the protocol preserve the important progress and stability forged by the Good Friday accords, which continue to enjoy strong bipartisan and bicameral support in the US Congress,” she added.

London said earlier this week that it will press ahead with plans to change the protocol in the coming “weeks” and has received legal advice that such a move would be legal. The DUP is still refusing to enter power-sharing until the government takes “decisive” action on the protocol.

Irish premier Micheal Martin will hold talks with political leaders in Belfast today. The Taoiseach will also meet a range of business representatives on a visit that will be dominated by the political crisis over the contentious post-Brexit trading arrangements. Forgotten how we got to this point? Here is a recap.

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“The weirdness of the inconsistency is that the regulations did not really allow for different individuals to attend a gathering for different purposes. They were drafted so that *the gathering* had to be (e.g.) reasonably necessary for work. So for the leaving parties that the PM attended – how can one person ‘participate’ (the wording of the regs) and get an FPN but another participates (even for a different reason) and not?”

Barrister and Covid law expert Adam Wagner questions the ‘inconsistency’ of fines handed out in Partygate probe.

“No 10 deeply boxed in on this by the economics, the diplomacy, the choices they made but also the expectations the DUP and unionists now have.”

Newsnight policy editor Lewis Goodall on US trade deal threat.

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