Inside Politics: Boris Johnson holds off on banning big crowds

A crisis always brings out the cranks. As fans of The Simpsons claim an old episode spookily foresaw Tom Hanks would self-isolate one day, others are dusting off dead psychics’ prophesies of a pandemic breaking out in 2020. What kind of soothsayer could have possibly predicted Boris Johnson might not be the best leader for an emergency? There is growing anger over the PM’s failure to cancel big public gatherings, as so many other world leaders take drastic action now. I’m Adam Forrest, and welcome to The Independent’s daily Inside Politics briefing.

Our deputy political editor Rob Merrick on what to look out for at Westminster today:

The coronavirus will absorb all attention again, with health officials explaining tougher advice urging anyone with mild, possible virus symptoms to self-isolate. Away from virus, communities secretary Robert Jenrick will announce a funding boost digital skills training – while a report by the National Audit Office will warn efforts to close the education gap between rich and poor children are being hindered by the lack of childcare providers in deprived areas.

SLEEVE PEEVE: He wanted the job so badly. Does Boris Johnson now secretly wish he hadn’t bothered with this leading the country business? Appearing alongside his two top experts at No 10, the PM cut a gloomy, harassed figure. He called the coronavirus “the worst public health crisis for a generation” and offered a grim warning that many families would “lose loved ones before their time”. Now that we’re in the delay phase, the new advice is to self-isolate for seven days if you have a new, persistent cough and/or higher temperature. Chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallace said up to 10,000 people in the UK are probably already infected. But the government still isn’t cancelling large public events. Johnson said the option must be kept “up our sleeve” until the time is right. Jeremy Hunt – former health secretary and former Johnson rival – is not happy about it. Breaking rank, the Tory chair of the health and social care committee said it was “surprising and concerning” the UK wasn’t doing something shown to have a positive impact in other countries.

I WOULD TALK 500 BILE: Nicola Sturgeon is another politician unconvinced by No 10’s approach. Almost all of what Johnson said at his press conference had actually been said an hour earlier by Scotland’s first minister, who had dialled into the same Cobra meeting. She came to a different conclusion than Johnson – deciding to cancel gatherings of more than 500 people across Scotland. Downing Street officials are furious about Sturgeon’s Scottish-only, 500-plus measures. “She is a total disgrace,” one source told BuzzFeed News. “This is a nationalist politician playing populist politics with a global crisis.” Oh dear. Still, the most scathing remarks have been aimed at Johnson. Prof John Ashton, former regional director of Public Health England, accused the “superficial” PM of having “no grasp of public health”. Prof Roy Anderson of ICL said the government was trying to balance lives against the economy by trying to avoid shutting things down. “The simple epidemiological rule is the earlier you intervene the better,” he warned.

DO BELIEVE THE SKYPE: Among the great global swathe of events getting cancelling, next week’s post-Brexit trade talks are off. A joint statement from the UK and EU officials said they were “currently exploring alternative ways to continue discussions, including if possible the use of video conferences”. The special conference event at which Labour finally, finally, finally announces Jeremy Corbyn’s successor has also been cancelled. The party is looking at a “scaled-back” result announcement on 4 April. And the Electoral Commission has now recommended postponing 7 May local elections until the autumn. Labour MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy was among those calling for an end to public tours of parliament, with several MPs now self-isolating after contact with Covid-19-stricken minister Nadine Dorries. “We are giving out tours, PMQ tickets, we’re having receptions – and I just don’t think that’s responsible.”

LONG TIME PASSING: Some intelligent people have had time to go through Rishi Sunak’s Budget in a bit more detail. And they’re not entirely blown away by it. The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it meant austerity would continue in key areas of public services “for a long time to come”. IFS chief Paul Johnson said Sunak’s “current spending plans are nothing like as generous as they appear”. Resolution Foundation analysis of government figures indicated the low growth ahead meant households would be almost £600 worse off a year – without even considering the impact of the coronavirus. Labour’s shadow chancellor John McDonnell said he didn’t want to do any “partisan political knockabout” when it came to the coronavirus stimulus stuff. But he was willing to do partisan political knockabout when it came to the Budget overall, saying “it’s become clear it failed – it doesn’t come close to reverse the damage of the last ten years of austerity”.

TESTING, TESTING 123: Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and his wife have gone into self-isolation after she tested positive for the coronavirus. A Philippine diplomat who works at the United Nations building in New York has tested positive – the first case at UN HQ. And Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said this morning he would know “in the next few hours” if he has tested positive. One of his aides was diagnosed with the virus after a trip to the US where he met none other than Donald Trump. EU chiefs condemned Trump’s travel ban, complaining he took the drastic action without telling them at a time “co-operation” was vital. The US president explained why he excluded the UK from the ban, saying we Brits were doing a “good job” to tackle Covid-19. Hmmm.

“We have a superficial prime minister who’s got no grasp of public health.”

Professor John Ashton, former regional director of Public Health England.

“So, you’re saying and admitting the disease will spread so much over the next weeks/months but you’re not closing schools “just yet”... You will have to close them eventually anyway. Why not do it now and avoid more trouble?”

Arsenal and Chelsea legend Cesc Fabregas offers the PM some advice...

“Nicola Sturgeon ... wants to cancel gatherings of 500 or more next week... s***housery of the highest order with the Rangers Celtic game on Sunday.”

...while Celtic and Blackburn legend Chris Sutton offers his thoughts of the situation in Scotland.

Tom Peck, The Independent: Yes, people will die, says Boris – just keep calm and carry on

Mary Dejevsky, The Independent: The chances of an EU trade deal? They’re not as bad as you think

Iain Martin: The Times: Crisis shows Boris Johnson in his true colours

Susan Crabtree, Real Clear Politics: Coronavirus is starting gun for Biden-Trump debates