Max Verstappen vs Lando Norris: predicting who will win the last six F1 races – and the 2024 title
Norris trails Verstappen by 52 points with six rounds remaining ahead of this weekend’s United States Grand Prix
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Your support makes all the difference.Lando Norris closed the gap to Max Verstappen in the F1 title stakes to 52 points with his dominant victory at the Singapore Grand Prix last month – but is the deficit closing quickly enough for the McLaren driver?
The chase has been on to catch Red Bull’s Verstappen, himself eyeing a fourth consecutive F1 world championship, for some time as Norris targets what would be a sensational comeback triumph.
Yet statistically, Verstappen could claim the title by finishing in second place in every race to Norris, regardless of who claims the fastest-lap bonus point.
Of course, that eventuality is extremely unlikely in a period when F1 is at peak competitiveness. But will McLaren also regret switching Oscar Piastri and Norris at the end of the Hungarian Grand Prix in July? If they hadn’t, the deficit to Verstappen would be 45 points. Will it come down to seven points at the end of the season?
There are still 180 points up for grabs in the remaining six rounds – including three sprint races – when F1 returns after a four-week break this weekend with the US Grand Prix.
So, can Norris catch Verstappen? Will the season finale in Abu Dhabi on 8 December have a title on the line for the first time since 2021? The Independent takes a look at the state of play and makes some ambitious predictions about how things could play out.
United States Grand Prix – 18-20 October
Points available: 34
Straight off a four-week break comes a crucial race weekend at the Circuit of the Americas.
Austin, Texas, hosts the fourth sprint race of the season and with an extra eight points up for grabs, it feels like a weekend where Norris and McLaren need to make their speed count. But after some extended time off, will Red Bull bring a host of upgrades and an improved level of performance?
Cota will be resurfaced this year, too, which should help the RB20, and the circuit’s smooth nature (as opposed to Baku and Singapore) should aid the characteristics of their car. Verstappen has also won the last three races in Austin and, as a result, if Norris can beat the Dutchman here, it really is game on.
Prediction: Norris 1st; Verstappen 2nd (Sprint: Verstappen 1st; Norris 2nd)
Championship leaderboard: Verstappen: 357 points; Norris: 311 points (-46 points)
Points left in the season: 146
Mexican Grand Prix – 25-27 October
Points available: 26
Mexico City has seen Verstappen dominate more so than Austin, winning five of the last six races. Out of all the six remaining circuits, the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez could be the one to swing Red Bull’s way.
But we are in unchartered territory, given McLaren’s advantage heading into the autumn break. How will both cars fare at an altitude of over 2,200m? And will we have any variant results between the top two?
I can see Verstappen’s winless streak – which would be at nine races by this point – ending here. Norris must limit the damage.
Prediction: Verstappen 1st; Norris 2nd (fastest lap)
Championship leaderboard: Verstappen: 382 points; Norris: 330 points (-52 points)
Points left in the season: 120
Brazilian Grand Prix – 1-3 November
Points available: 34
For me, this is the most crucial weekend in Norris’s ambitious bid to claw back Verstappen’s advantage. Separately, this is the first race where Verstappen could mathematically claim his fourth world title.
Interlagos always brings drama and entertainment; it is one of F1’s most legendary tracks and has two prime overtaking spots: down into turn 1 and the back straight into turn 4. Furthermore, Verstappen has struggled here in the past while Norris did claim a sprint-race pole position last year.
The penultimate sprint race means Norris has to capitalise and have a perfect weekend. An incident or lack of performance against Verstappen could see a huge points swing, tantalisingly taking us into the final triple-header.
Prediction: Norris 1st (fastest lap); Verstappen 6th (Sprint: Norris 1st; Verstappen 4th)
Championship leaderboard: Verstappen: 395 points; Norris: 364 points (-31 points)
Points left in the season: 86
Las Vegas Grand Prix – 22-24 November
Points available: 26
The second instalment of the race around the Vegas Strip will be intriguing for both cars.
Verstappen won last year’s grand prix but Charles Leclerc took pole and ran him close in the race. Norris, meanwhile, crashed out early on. No doubt that will be in the back of his mind this time around.
It is a street circuit and has bumps which will favour McLaren, but also has a long straight which could play into Red Bull’s hands (though their straight-line speed has been way off McLaren’s in recent weeks). The advantage should still be with Norris, albeit it is tough to predict now after another two-week break.
Prediction: Norris 1st; Verstappen 3rd
Championship leaderboard: Verstappen: 410 points; Norris: 389 points (-21 points)
Points left in the season: 60
Qatar Grand Prix – 29 November-1 December
Points available: 34
McLaren should have the advantage here – both in terms of track layout and historic results.
Piastri picked up McLaren’s first F1 win in two years with his sprint race victory last year, on the same day Verstappen secured his third championship. The high-speed corners should suit the MCL38, though Verstappen did win the grand prix last year.
A lot of things have gone right so far – and Norris must continue to ride that wave of momentum.
Prediction: Norris 1st (fastest lap); Verstappen 2nd (Sprint: Verstappen 1st; Norris 3rd)
Championship leaderboard: Verstappen: 436 points; Norris: 421 points (-15 points)
Points left in the season: 26
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix – 6-8 December
Points available: 26
And so we reach the finale.
Ultimately, anything less than 27 points means the title would still technically be on the line on the final day – for the first time since that infamous day in 2021. Yet in reality, the points difference needs to be around the mid-teens or single figures for Norris to have a genuine shot.
It would be a mighty achievement for Norris to make it this far with the title still up for grabs (for instance, I haven’t predicted a finish lower than third in any race). He will need a lot of luck and perhaps some help from teammate Piastri. But strange things can happen in Formula One.
Take my prediction below with a pinch of salt – it’s almost like the final points tally is a complete coincidence! If you’re still intrigued, they’d also be tied on eight wins each at this stage, meaning it would come down to the most second-place finishes, then third-place – and so on.
If that’s the case, Verstappen would still win the title – with six second-place finishes to five for Norris – adhering to my predictions!
Prediction: Norris 1st; Verstappen 5th
Championship leaderboard: Verstappen: 446 points; Norris: 446 points (Verstappen wins the title due to more second-place finishes).
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