F1 2024 season predictions: World champion, biggest shock, and who will replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes?
Ahead of Saturday’s season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix, Kieran Jackson makes his predictions for the upcoming season
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.Another Formula One off season has come and gone – with its fair share of dramatic stories – but now we are set to go racing once again.
This Saturday’s season opener in Bahrain is the first of a record-breaking 24 races in 2024, which sees the season stretch from Bahrain GP practice on 29 February to the finale in Abu Dhabi on 8 December.
Max Verstappen is the unquestionable favourite to claim his fourth straight world championship this year, with Red Bull winning 21 out of 22 races last year and the likes of Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren all playing catch up.
But will there be a surprise in store? Can anyone make the jump up into the midfield contenders? And how will a fascinating driver market develop throughout the year?
Ahead of Saturday’s Bahrain Grand Prix, Formula 1 Correspondent Kieran Jackson makes his predictions for the upcoming season:
World champion: Max Verstappen
The overwhelming favourite, such was his complete and utter supremacy last year. Max Verstappen’s 2023 campaign was the most dominant in F1’s 73-year history, as he won 19 out of 22 races and missed out on the podium just once.
And any hope that Red Bull’s hefty advantage would be diminished with off-season development seemed to be squashed at testing last week. A new design approach with the RB20 has talk in the paddock of a 1.1-second lead over their rivals. Scary.
What we don’t know is the long-term reliability of the car. But, assuming that’s not an issue, the Dutchman is overwhelmingly likely to seal a fourth title, putting him level with the likes of Sebastian Vettel and Alain Prost in the all-time leaderboard.
Constructors’ champions: Red Bull
Adrian Newey and his team of designers look to have taken their car to another level with the RB20. As shown last year, Verstappen will accumulate the maximum amount of points possible from his machinery.
Sergio Perez struggled with consistency in 2023, but should still be the favourite to claim second place. Red Bull at a canter, with Ferrari runners-up.
Constructors’ wooden spoon: Haas
When your new team principal, Ayao Komatsu, admits early on that your team will be “towards the back of the grid, if not last”, it indicates immediate pessimism about the upcoming season.
Tenth in two out of the last three seasons, Haas appear least likely to improve given the current discussions around their car. Guenther Steiner’s dismissal as team boss may well have dampened morale, too. Whether he is a bigger loss to the team or the sport remains to be seen.
Williams and RB look promising. Stake (Sauber) may run Haas closest in the battle to avoid the wooden spoon.
Biggest shock: Daniel Ricciardo
The Australian will make himself a shoo-in to replace Sergio Perez at Red Bull next year – and will be the best driver amidst the midfield pack.
The eight-time race winner has been given a second chance in F1 at sister team RB; a car which looked quick at testing last week.
And should he outshine Yuki Tsunoda, with a handful of top-10 finishes, he could get his dream return to Red Bull and partner Max Verstappen in 2025. My other contender for the second Red Bull seat next year – assuming Perez is not retained – is Carlos Sainz.
Best race: Silverstone
No outlandish shouts here. No matter the year, the conditions or the pecking order, the home of British motorsport always produces a grand prix of intrigue.
A shoutout to China, too, with the Shanghai circuit returning this year after a five-year absence. It has had its fair share of entertaining races.
Three bold predictions
1. We will have five different race-winners in 2024: Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez, Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris.
2. Two drivers desperate for a crowning grand prix success will finish on top of the podium at their home race: Leclerc in Monaco and Perez in Mexico.
3. Most audacious shout: unimpressed by Stake’s developments, Valtteri Bottas will retire from F1 at the end of the season.
Who will replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes?
It will be the underlying beat to the whole season – until a replacement is confirmed.
For me, Fernando Alonso makes the most sense. A one-year deal for the two-time world champion veteran, before the likely promotion of highly rated Mercedes junior Kimi Antonelli in 2026.
The Italian, debuting in F2 this year, could instead move to Williams for next year for his first taste of F1, with Mercedes boss Toto Wolff enjoying a strong relationship with Williams team principal James Vowles given their past together.
However, if Antonelli impresses in F2, Wolff may be tempted to give the teenager an opportunity a year early. It’d be a courageous call.
Who will be new drivers on the grid next year?
With more than half the grid out of contract at the end of the season, a repeat of this year – with an unchanged driver lineup – is very unlikely for 2025.
Looking ahead, I think there will be four new drivers, as some teams opt for a change of direction: Antonelli at Williams, last year’s F2 winner Theo Pourchaire will get a call-up at Stake (Sauber) and British teenager Oliver Bearman gets his shot at Haas, in place of either Kevin Magnussen or Nico Hulkenberg. I also think Liam Lawson, who deputised so brilliantly for Ricciardo last season, will receive a permanent call-up at RB.
Felipe Drugovich could get a nod at Aston Martin as well if Alonso moves to Mercedes or retires.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments