F1 2023 season predictions: World champion, surprise star, best race and more

The 2023 F1 season gets underway this weekend with the Bahrain Grand Prix the first of a record 23 races this year.

Max Verstappen is the favourite after his runaway success last year and will hope to lay down a marker in practice today, while both Ferrari and Mercedes will be hoping to haul in the hefty deficit to Red Bull in 2023.

There are three rookies this year – in Oscar Piastri, Nyck de Vries and Logan Sargeant – as well as a new race in Las Vegas, the penultimate meet of the season which ends in Abu Dhabi on 26 November.

Here are some season predictions from Formula 1 Correspondent Kieran Jackson - do you agree?

Giving his sheer dominance last year and his formidable showing at testing, it is hard to look beyond the flying Dutchman to make it three on the spin in 2023.

Red Bull’s 2023 car – the RB19 – is an evolution of the team’s rapid 2022 challenger and the inclination is that it will once again be the quickest on the grid, with star designer Adrian Newey having nailed the new ground-effect aerodynamics to a tee.

Verstappen has been the biggest beneficiary and expect him to pick up where he left off in 2022, when he won an astonishing 15 of 22 races.

Charles Leclerc will want to convert more of Ferrari’s potential into wins this season and will be Verstappen’s closest challenger outside of the Red Bull garage. A closely-fought title race between these two – who have been rivals on the track since their teenage years – would be enthralling for the sport throughout a record 23-race calendar.

Yet should Red Bull be the runaway team once more, his main rival could be teammate Sergio Perez. And after the pair clashed in Brazil last year – with Verstappen refusing to obey team orders in order to let Perez pass – it might not take much for friction to brew once more should both drivers be vying for the title.

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Compared to their challengers, Red Bull are the most well-oiled machine on the grid and they are undoubtedly favourites to retain their Constructors’ crown.

Christian Horner and his team last year achieved a double world title success for the first time since 2011 – and it was their best-performing year since they entered the world of Formula 1 in 2005.

Despite last year’s flare-up between Verstappen and Perez in Brazil, on the whole the drivers have worked superbly in tandem to the point that – combined – Red Bull won 17 grands prix out of 22 last year.

Ferrari will hope they can close the mammoth 205-point gap this season, while Mercedes will be striving for a battle at the front akin to 2021’s back and forth.

Is that realistic, though? Testing implies it is most certainly not.

Bottom of the pack in four of the last five years, Alex Albon and rookie Logan Sargeant may well find it tough-going again in 2023.

While the Oxford-based team do now have former Mercedes chief James Vowles as their new team principal – replacing Jost Capito – Williams do enter this season quite inconceivably without a technical director after FX Demaison departed in the off-season.

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Last year, Williams managed to score only eight points and were 27 points adrift of AlphaTauri in ninth and while Red Bull’s sister team are likely to be in and around the bottom once again – alongside Alfa Romeo perhaps – Williams are some way short of challenging the midfield teams on a regular basis.

Albon has taken on his role as team leader extremely well and will target an improvement on his haul of four points last year, while American driver Sargeant will be slowly bedded in, for what is his first year in F1.

Fernando Alonso could well be challenging for podiums once again in a new and improved Aston Martin team, who looked very impressive at testing.

But given his two world titles and 20+ years of experience in the bank, the Spaniard fighting at the front would not be a massive surprise with the right machinery. As such, I’ll turn to Pierre Gasly – who has signed for Alpine from AlphaTauri.

The Frenchman has joined compatriot Esteban Ocon at the team named after the luxury brand of Renault and is looking to score points on a more regular basis as part of a solidified midfield team, with Alpine finishing fourth last year.

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Gasly is far more polished now than his six-month period at Red Bull in 2019 showed and is a consistent performer on the grid. I expect him to beat teammate Ocon, finish in the top eight of the drivers’ standings – and he could even claim a shock podium.

Aston Martin were the success story of testing and Alonso not only showed rapid speed on a one-off qualifying-esque lap but also displayed efficient race pace in the longer runs.

The two-time world champion will be delighted and will have his eyes on points finishes and podiums. Yet the gulf in quality between the Spaniard and Lance Stroll – in a high-performing car – will be evident from early on, not least due to the Canadian coming into Bahrain undercooked after missing testing due to a wrist injury.

Has it healed fully? Maybe, but it is hardly ideal preparation for Stroll armed with a car capable of producing perhaps his best season in Formula 1. Compared to Alonso, though, he has his work cut out – and he will not finish in the top-10.

Silverstone – when is it not good? – and Spa ran it close, but the Circuit of the Americas has produced intriguing racing for years now.

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For overall weekend and the most popular meet of the season, Austin takes the biscuit. There will also be a sprint race this year and the conclusion of the all-female F1 Academy will also be played out over the weekend.

It’s place in the calendar towards the end of the season also plays into its hands. Certainly compared to the other American races – with both Miami and the new Las Vegas event unknown quantities – Austin is a standout No 1. Vegas will be a bigger spectacle but will do well to be a better race.

Given what we saw at testing, I do believe this is a season where Fernando Alonso could win a race for the first time in 10 years.

Damp conditions, a few retirements, and the 41-year-old will be right up there at the front in an Aston car which is likely to head the midfield teams – and maybe even challenge Mercedes for third place. Where could he win? Canada (where he qualified second last year), Japan, Silverstone and Spa are usually unpredictable.

Elsewhere, expect Nyck de Vries to beat AlphaTauri teammate Yuki Tsunoda – triggering the end of the Japanese’s time in Formula 1 – while George Russell will once again finish higher than Lewis Hamilton in a Mercedes short of race-winning pace once more.

By the time the season is out too, don’t be too surprised if Lando Norris’ patience with McLaren wears thin as he looks for quicker options along the paddock. Depending on Perez’s performance at Red Bull, they could be an option for the rapid Brit come 2024.

The new F1 season gets underway with the Bahrain Grand Prix at 3pm (GMT) on Sunday - and you can follow live coverage on The Independent.