Philippines facing ‘unprecedented’ back-to-back typhoons. Scientists now say climate crisis is to blame

The extraordinary number of typhoons that pummeled the Philippines in November were fueled by conditions that are now almost twice as likely due to the climate crisis, a new study has found.

The Philippines faced six back to back typhoons in just 23 days last month, an unprecedented onslaught of storms that scientists say were fueled by unusually hot oceans and higher air humidity – both consequences of the climate crisis caused by burning fossil fuels.

This record-breaking series of storms, that occurred just as the world had gathered for the UN climate summit in Baku last month, left experts shocked.

Now, a study by World Weather Attribution (WWA), which analysed the role of the climate crisis, found that warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions made conditions for such extreme storms 1.7 times more likely compared to preindustrial levels.

“This barrage of storms was supercharged by climate change,” said Dr Ben Clarke, a researcher at the centre for environmental policy, Imperial College London, and one of the authors of the study.

“While it is unusual to see so many typhoons hit the Philippines in less than a month, the conditions that gave rise to these storms are increasing as the climate warms.’Dr Clarke said the conditions that led to the back to back storms have become “about 70 per cent more likely due to warming of 1.3 degrees.”

Scientists warn this could be a glimpse of a harsher future as global heating escalates, with storms growing deadlier and harder to recover from.

“Unless the world shifts away from fossil fuels, typhoons like these will grow stronger and more frequent, making life even more precarious for millions in the Philippines,” he said.

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The Philippines, a country that already faces the highest numbers of tropical cyclones in the world, endured six typhoons in just a matter of 23 days, including four that were classified as Category 3 or higher – levels capable of unleashing catastrophic damage.

The storms killed more than 170 people, displaced 1.4 million, and caused economic losses exceeding half a billion US dollars. The storm also forced the diversion and cancellation of hundreds of flights.

Super Typhoon Man-Yi, packing winds of 195kmph, was the strongest in the series and struck Luzon just days after Typhoon Xinying forced the evacuation of 160,000 people. For the first time on record, four named storms were active in the Pacific simultaneously, marking an unusual ferocity of this typhoon season.

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Warmer ocean temperatures, higher air humidity, and rising sea levels — consequences of burning fossil fuels – provided the perfect ingredients for these typhoons to intensify, the analysis by WWA, released on Thursday, said.

“The Philippines experiences about six to eight landfalling tropical cyclone occurrences annually. Having five typhoons in less than a month was extraordinary, and our study found that climate change made them much more destructive.” Dr Joseph Basconcillo, Climatologist at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

The year 2024 is now certain to be the first year where the yearly increase in temperature is noted to be above 1.5C. While the overall warming is still around 1.3-1.4C, WWA analysis found that such extreme onslaught of storms, which was earlier a once in a two decade event. has already become a once-in-15-year phenomenon.

This shift in frequency means that communities at the frontlines have less time to recover between disasters, increasing the loss of lives, economies, and infrastructure.

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In northern Luzon, where five of the six typhoons made landfall, floodwaters submerged cities like Tuguegarao and Ilagan, exacerbated by deforestation, river silting, and unchecked urban sprawl.

Rural areas fared no better – farmers in Cagayan and Isabela saw their rice and corn crops destroyed, with agricultural losses exceeding $23m in Cagayan alone. The storms disrupted food supply chains, leading to shortages and price spikes that deepened the region’s already high levels of food insecurity.

“Every year, it’s getting worse,” said Afrhill Rances, who grew up in Camarines Sur, one of the hardest-hit regions. “We call the Philippines the ‘supermarket of disasters.’ You name it – we have it: typhoons, volcanoes, earthquakes, and man-made conflicts. It’s hard to keep up with the scale of risks here.”

“We’re losing more homes, more livelihoods, and more people. You wonder how much more we can take.”

For families already struggling to recover from previous storms, this onslaught was a breaking point. Ms Rances says the impact isn’t just limited to poorer communities, but the storms are also plunging affluent communities into poverty.

“This is really unimaginable for me because I’ve seen the history of it working with the Red Cross in 2009. Despite being among the country’s more affluent regions with low poverty rates, Luzon continues to face compounding risks.”

Rising sea levels, occurring three times faster in the Philippines than the global average, are also already amplifying storm surges, while heavier rainfall is triggering more deadly landslides. This convergence of climate impacts is making recovery nearly impossible for many communities.

“We are talking about low-lying areas like the Cagayan Valley in northern Luzon, which acts as a natural flood basin. Cities such as Tuguegarao and Ilagan are particularly vulnerable due to proximity to rivers and limited adaptive infrastructure,” she said.

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The findings also serve as a stark warning for what lies ahead. The study warned that if warming reaches 2C – projected by the 2040s without significant emissions cuts – such devastating clusters of typhoons could become even more frequent, with severe storms expected every 12 years.

The situation isn’t just worsening in the Pacific. A study by the Climate Central in November found that every Atlantic hurricane that formed this year had higher wind speeds because of the climate crisis.

While the Philippines has made strides in disaster preparedness, the sheer scale and frequency of such events has brought it to the limits of adaptation. International climate finance is critical, but current funding falls far short.

The Asian Development Bank estimates that $102–431bn is needed annually across Asia-Pacific to help countries adapt to climate impacts, yet only $34bn was invested in 2022. An attempt to create a new trillion dollar fund at Cop29 summit in Baku ended in disappointment with just $300bn agreed to be paid by rich nations at the end of the summit, and a target of the much needed trillion dollar left to be raised by a mix of private investments and financial tools.

“The Philippines doesn’t have the luxury of waiting,” says DrFriederike Otto, co-founder of WWA and senior lecturer at Imperial College London. “Communities are having to dig deeper and deeper into their pockets to recover from disasters that keep sending them back to square one.”