Analysis suggests this year’s harvest in England was one of worst for decades
A think tank says 2024 was a ‘shocker’ – and warns climate change is to blame.
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Your support makes all the difference.England has had one of its worst harvests on record, according to analysis from climate experts who warn global warming is to blame.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said official figures published on Thursday by the Environment Department (Defra) showed England had its second worst harvest since 1983, after last year’s very wet autumn and winter.
Figures from Defra show the 2024 English wheat harvest was down 22% on 2023, and was the smallest since 2020, when wet weather last affected autumn planting.
The barley harvest is up slightly, with a decrease in winter barley offset by an in increase in spring barley, and oats production was up by a fifth, although oilseed rape production was down by a third compared to last year, the data show.
In response to the figures, farmers leaders warned it had been “one of the most challenging growing seasons in memory” and urged the Government to back British farming with an annual budget of £5.6 billion to help them invest in the future and deliver food – and pursue nature and climate-friendly farming.
Defra said that following a very wet July, drier and warmer weather in early August helped the start of the harvest in England, but further wet conditions disrupted progress in many regions through August into September.
It is clear that climate change is the biggest threat to UK food security
Now, with some areas of England hit by record September rainfall, the ECIU is warning farmers face a repeat of the past year in 2025.
And the think tank is pointing the finger at climate change, which scientific analysis has shown made autumn and winter storms over the UK and Ireland last year wetter.
The assessment by scientists from the World Weather Attribution network earlier this year showed downpours were made 20% heavier by climate change, in the series of storms which battered the UK and Ireland in 2023/2024 causing flooding and leaving famers with waterlogged fields.
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at ECIU said: “This year’s harvest was a shocker, and climate change is to blame.
“Whilst shoppers have been partly insulated by imports picking up some of the slack, Britain’s farmers have borne the brunt of the second worst harvest on record.
“It is clear that climate change is the biggest threat to UK food security.
“And these impacts are only going to get worse until we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, in order to stop the warming that is driving these extremes.”
He called on the Government to invest in sustainable farming in the Budget this month, or face worsening impacts of climate change on agriculture in the years ahead.
We're getting into a situation where autumn planting is becoming unviable due to flooding and spring planting is risky because of drought
Colin Chappell, an arable farmer in Lincolnshire, described being on a “knife edge” in the face of the latest wet conditions.
“Last week we had almost two inches of rain within 36 hours here and we’re not the worst off.
“Some farms in southern England have lost their crops for the second year in a row.
“Many will now be relying on spring wheat once again this year, which only produces about half as much as winter wheat.”
He said: “We’re getting into a situation where autumn planting is becoming unviable due to flooding and spring planting is risky because of drought.
“It is causing a lot of nervousness and uncertainty. Farmers are going to need support to see them through this and ensure they are resilient in the future.”
ECIU’s analysis is based on Defra data for production of key crops, wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape from 1999 to 2024, and production estimates based on yields and area data for 1983-1999.
National Farmers’ Union (NFU) combinable crops board chairman Jamie Burrows said the provisional harvest data for 2024 from Defra confirmed that the unprecedented wet weather and flooding would result in the second worst wheat harvest in 20 years.
“It has been one of the most challenging growing seasons in memory with thousands of acres of farmland under water earlier in the year and many arable farmers unable to get on to fields to plant crops while those that were already in the ground were lost.
“The current rain has meant some arable farmers still haven’t completed harvest, with huge variations in yield and quality,” he warned.
“This all highlights the need for government to back British farming with a renewed multi-year annual agriculture budget of £5.6 billion, essential in giving Britain’s farmers the confidence they desperately need to invest for the future and deliver on our ambitions of producing more sustainable homegrown food while delivering for nature, energy security and climate-friendly farming.”
A Defra spokesperson said confidence amongst farmers was at record lows, and said the Government would “restore stability and confidence in the sector introducing a new deal for farmers to boost rural economic growth and strengthen food security”.
They added: “That starts with accelerating the building of flood defences through our new Flood Resilience Taskforce to protect farms and their crops.
“We will also go further by protecting farmers from being undercut in trade deals, making the supply chain work more fairly, and use the Government’s own purchasing power to back British produce.”