Coronavirus could cut emissions this year but spell worse news for the climate crisis

The novel coronavirus outbreak has transformed life as we know it: schools, offices and places of worship have closed, bars and restaurants are shuttered and leaders are pleading for calm amid scenes of panic-buying as the world struggles to get a grip on the pandemic. Some 7,019 people have died and confirmed cases have topped 173,000, according to the World Health Organization.

While the race to ‘flatten the curve’ of Covid-19 cases is at the forefront of global consciousness, the pandemic likely heralds long-reaching consequences in fighting climate change.

The Covid-19 outbreak may lead to a drop in global carbon emissions in 2020 as flights are grounded, fewer people hit the road and industry slows.

China’s emissions dropped by a quarter in February, according to analysis by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, compared to the same period in 2019.

However with plummeting oil prices, fossil fuel consumption will likely increase as the global economy takes steps to recover, negatively impacting investment in renewables and the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

In China, the world’s largest market for EVs, passenger car sales dropped as much as 80 per cent last month, according to Reuters.

Global solar demand is expected to drop 16 per cent this year, according to a forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance - suggesting that 2020 to be the first down year for solar capacity addition since at least the 1980s.

Fatih Birol, executive director at International Energy Agency (IEA), writes that a potential CO2 emissions fall in 2020 is likely to be "a short-term blip that could well be followed by a rebound in emissions growth as economic activity ramps back up".

Governments can use the current situation to step up their climate ambitions and launch sustainable stimulus packages focused on clean energy technologies.

The coronavirus crisis is already doing significant damage around the world. Rather than compounding the tragedy by allowing it to hinder clean energy transitions, we need to seize the opportunity to help accelerate them,’ he writes.

Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at New York University, said that any drop in global emissions could be short-lived and that in the U.S., the Trump administration would likely ‘bail out the Texas oil patch much sooner than suddenly engaging in some Green New Deal-style investment bonanza’.

‘In the 2008 financial crisis, emissions decreased significantly. Afterwards, they increased more than they would have otherwise, went right up to trend and have been increasing ever since,’ he told the Independent.

The Covid-19 outbreak has already caused a global recession, four former IMF chief economists told the Financial Times on Sunday.

As a wide-range of sectors face economic uncertainty, there are concerns that it could hamper emission-reduction targets as beleaguered governments and businesses pivot to focus on how to bounce back from the coronavirus.

Legislative activity has slowed in the wake of the coronavirus across Europe and in a number of U.S. state legislatures. Earlier this month, European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen reinforced the EU’s commitment to its ambitious Green Deal to make the bloc carbon neutral by 2050.

Airlines for Europe, Europe’s largest airline association, is advocating for the deferment or waiver of new aviation taxes at EU or national level, that are aimed at reducing emissions.

If any positives can be taken from the current situation, it may be that people are heeding the advice of public health officials - religiously washing hands, staying home, rethinking non-essential travel - and that the propensity for change could be channelled into the action needed on climate change.

Mitch Jones, climate and energy program director at Food & Water Watch, told the Independent: ‘It’s hard to say anything positive about the reduction of greenhouse gases resulting from a global pandemic. Right now, people are rightly focused on public health.

"But I do think we have a moment to look at how we can reorganize the global economy in such a way that those sorts of reductions become permanent and lasting. Not because we’re facing a global health crisis but because we’re facing the global climate crisis."

Many workers are telecommuting, cutting the numbers of those driving to work or taking flights for meetings and conferences.

Kimberly Nicholas, senior lecturer at the Lund University Center for Sustainability Studies in Sweden who is currently writing a book on the climate crisis, told The Independent: "People who are not essential service providers are working from home and finding that it actually does work.

"Going forward, I think there will be much more support and enthusiasm for digital working, collaboration and teaching.

"Reducing long-distance travel is what makes a huge difference. Every flight avoided is a really big win for the climate. People finding ways to work effectively or vacation closer to home will make a big difference."

Dr Wagner says that although changes in our behavior towards climate change are welcome and necessary, they should not be the focus during the coronavirus outbreak.

He described the reaction to Covid-19 as ‘climate change at warp speed’ in how the world has reacted to the global health crisis.

He added: "Are there lessons from Covid-19 for climate? Sure there are and right now, let’s please not worry about them.

He added: "COV-19 is much more important right now. I’m an environmentalist because I care about people, and people are dying."

Public health officials are advocating for "social distancing" in the hope of limiting new infections and deaths from the coronavirus and international travel has dwindled.

The United Nations has cancelled meetings, crucial for governments to draft agreements, ahead of the 2020 United Nations Climate Change Conference - COP26 - in Glasgow this November.

Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, told Reuters earlier this month that no physical meetings will be held until the end of April.

The World Oceans Summit in Japan was cancelled this month along with energy conference, CERAWeek, in Houston.

Climate change activists, and in particular, the youth-led movements have inspired a surge of global attention to the crisis in the past year.

Now, many are heeding the warnings of doctors and halting mass public gatherings in favour of taking the fight online.

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Greta Thunberg advised her 4 million Twitter followers to follow medical experts’ advice and avoid large public gatherings.

"We young people are the least affected by this virus but it’s essential that we act in solidarity with the most vulnerable and that we act in the best interest of our common society," she wrote.

For now, Fridays For Future school strikes have been adapted to digital strikes, with young people sharing pictures of their protest signs on social media with the hashtag #ClimateStrikeOnline.

The youth-led Sunrise Movement had planned a three-day climate strike demanding action beginning on April 22- the 50th anniversary of Earth Day.

In an Instagram post, the coalition asked organisers to forgo physical gatherings and instead "think critically and creatively about how to engage their communities in disrupting business as usual through different and new tactics".

Extinction Rebellion has also recommended online meetings and to "think carefully" before organising in-person gatherings.